Balliet Mock Draft 1.0
Mock Draft season has come to an end, with the real draft just hours away now. While this is technically the first mock draft I’ve done and am releasing out into the world, I’ve been pondering how the first round of this draft will shake out for months now. A big reason for that is the fact that my Indianapolis Colts are either going to finally draft their franchise quarterback *cough cough* CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson *cough* OR set the team back several years *cough* Will Levis *cough*. Regardless of where these quarterbacks go, the futures of dozens of young men and 32 NFL franchises will be forged through the draft. So, here’s by pale attempt to predict the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft!
Image credit to James Dotter / @jdcreatez
I do want to throw a disclaimer here: I will not be including trades in this mock. This is more an exercise in where I think each team will be looking to go when they’re on the clock. Trades are so difficult to predict, as well. I somehow managed to predict the Bills trading up specifically with the Buccaneers to select Josh Allen in 2018 (source: trust me, bro). Two years later, I was adamant that the Dolphins would move up a few spots with the Lions to secure Justin Herbert. Not only did they stay put at 5th overall, but they passed on Herbert (who was available) for Tua Tagavailoa.
With quite a handful of teams lacking a first round selection, I’ll discuss where those teams could be looking to go with some of their later selections. In Miami’s case, their forfeited pick results in the opening round consisting of only 31 selections. To even things out, I’ll include the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 32nd-overall selection (acquired from the Chicago Bears in the Chase Claypool trade) at the very end, as plenty of talented players are still available to select at the beginning of Day 2 of the draft.
Sometimes picks are easy to predict (Jacksonville taking Trevor Lawrence), and sometimes they’re not (anything the Patriots could do). So here we go, my one and done 2022 NFL Mock Draft. I’ll revisit this next week to see just how close I got.
Teams Without A First-Round Pick
Denver Broncos: The Broncos are still paying the price for that Russell Wilson trade last offseason. They would have the 5th overall selection this year, but instead all they have is questions on if Wilson can play at a high level anymore. Maybe Sean Payton, after a year off from coaching, can find the right recipe to let Russ cook again. Or Denver will be remodeling their kitchen yet again. Denver won’t be selecting until their back-to-back third rounders in the middle of Day 2. Picks 67 and 68 should be spent wisely on an offensive lineman and help for the defense. Denver’s defense was great last year, but the offense was historically awful. Getting Javonte Williams back healthy from a knee injury should help, but the offensive scheme change alone should do wonders for Sutton and Jeudy.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams would slot in right behind Denver with the 6th overall selection, but they too have an outstanding balance to pay from a high-profile QB trade. The big difference? The Rams have no reservations about the Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford swap. A super Bowl championship belongs to the Rams, but a massive hangover ensued in 2022. Sean McVay’s squad has made the most out of their picks, as they have never drafted a player in the first round with McVay as the head coach. That won’t change this year barring a trade up. The Rams do have some ammunition to do so, but my feeling is they’ll continue to make due with what they have. This roster is still strong, yet so weak at the same time. Future replacements for Stafford and Aaron Donald could taken, while immediate replacements for Jalen Ramsey and Allen Robinson are needed.
Cleveland Browns: Noticing a trend here? The Browns are also out a first round pick this year because of the disgusting to think about Deshaun Watson trade. His off field controversies aside, who warrants three first round picks and a massive $250M fully guaranteed contract? I’d have reservations about sending all of that for Patrick Mahomes, let alone a quarterback who didn’t play for over a year at the time of the trade. Rant aside, Cleveland has very little movement ability, and will be relegated to taking mostly project players. The Browns can go anywhere they want, because anyone they take likely won’t be asked to make a difference on day one. Instead, they should aim for high-upside guys, or trust their draft board and go best available. But trust doesn’t seem to be worth much in Cleveland anymore.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins forfeited their first round pick due to a tampering charge, so they will not be selecting until 51st overall. Additionally, they currently only have four draft picks: the mentioned second rounder, a third rounder, a sixth, and a late seventh. Most of their other picks were spent acquiring the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, and Jeff Wilson in trades. Miami could use that second round pick to invest in this deep tight end class. They lost Gesicki to the rival Patriots in free agency, and traded away backup Hunter Long in the Ramsey deal. Give Mike McDaniel more weapons to play around with is a good idea, so a running back may also be in play, or a linemen to help make sure the current lineup runs smoothly. With the Ramsey trade and the hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, I don’t see a need to heavily invest on that side of the ball with such little draft capital.
San Francisco 49ers: Lastly, we have the 49ers. The story of their original first round selection is kind of funny, because this pick got passed around like a dirty joke at the elementary school lunch table. (There were much darker analogies, I know) San Fran sent this pick to Miami to move up for Trey Lance in 2021. Miami then sent this pick to Denver for Bradley Chubb. Finally, Denver sent this pick to New Orleans for the right to hire Sean Payton as their next head coach. Fruitful, because the Saints don’t have their own first round; that got sent to Philadelphia last year in a trade up. Back to the 49ers though, who continue to field one of the most impressive and complete rosters in the NFL. They got incredible play from Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy last year, so I have faith San Fran can strike gold wherever they pick. Replacement for Mike McGlinchey and Azeez Al-Shaair are needed. With Trent Williams not getting any younger, developing a young tackle is their biggest need offensively. They have a hole on the right side, and getting a young prospect ready to replace Williams on the left side is crucial. Defensively, their front seven is still top notch, so adding to the secondary could be a move for the 49ers when they first go on the clock with the 99th overall pick, then also select at 101st and 102nd.
The First Round
1. Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young, QB Alabama
Bryce Young will be the quarterback from this class with the most immediate results. Carolina has had a great offseason thus far, and selecting Young here should put them in position to conquer a weak, yet uber-competitive NFC South
2. Houston Texans - Will Anderson Jr., EDGE Alabama
Houston’s new head coach DeMeco Ryans bypasses a quarterback at #2, and opts instead to get the safest player in this draft. Anderson will fill the Nick Bosa role in Ryans’ defense.
3. Arizona Cardinals - Paris Johnson Jr., OT Ohio State
Rumor has it Arizona wants out of the third overall pick. When you’re rebuilding, you want all the picks you can get. But rumor also has it they’re comfortable staying at three at building an offensive line for Kyler Murray. Paris Johnson is a massive building block.
4. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson, QB Florida
With only one QB off the board, Indy has plenty of options to finally get off the veteran-QB carousel. I see them taking Anthony Richardson, because GM Chris Ballard is big on physical traits, and nobody has better traits in that category than Richardson. He’ll need time to develop, but he has the highest ceiling of this quarterback class.
5. Seattle Seahawks - Jalen Carter, DL Georgia
Carter had an off field concern that appears to be cleaned up, so I won’t have him fall too far. Perhaps the most dominant prospect in this class, Carter goes to the Pacific Northwest to be a defensive cornerstone for years to come.
6. Detroit Lions - Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois
Detroit moved on from former third-overall pick Jeff Okudah. This regime gets to select their own corner, and I trust this regime infinitely more so than the previous one. Witherspoon is the top corner, and the most pro-ready, despite the slightly smaller build.
7. Las Vegas Raiders - C.J. Stroud, QB Ohio State
In reality, Stroud likely goes in the top 5. But this isn’t reality. I don’t know what reality is anymore. But Stroud supposedly has some doubters, so having Jimmy Garoppolo to lean on makes things easier to select any QB of the future.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Nolan Smith, EDGE Georgia
Atlanta rebuilt their secondary, so adding a big time piece to the front seven is imperative. I have them staying in state and selecting the athletic freak that is Nolan Smith. Hopefully he can be what Vic Beasley flashed, and what Takk McKinley was hoped to be.
9. Chicago Bears - Peter Skoronski, OL Northwestern
Chicago also makes a pick from their backyard in an effort to build in front of Justin Fields. Skoronski is a popular pick to move inside to guard, but I see him staying at tackle. Wherever he ends up playing, Fields will be more than happy to have him.
10. Philadelphia Eagles - Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon
Philly always does a great job of drafting for the future. No one thought that both James Bradberry and Darius Slay would be back at corner for the defending NFC champions, yet here they are. Perfect timing, because Gonzalez could use a little time to fine tune his game at the NFL level.
11. Tennessee Titans - Will Levis, QB Kentucky
I’ve been critical of Levis throughout this entire draft process, so is giving him to my Colts’ biggest rival a bit of biased manifesting? I’ll likely earn my comeuppance, but for now the Titans want to replace Tannehill. They’re seemingly not confidant in Malik Willis, so they go back to the well this year.
12. Houston Texans - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State
Houston needs to make life easier for “General” Mills, at least for 2023. No better way to do that than by taking the best pass catcher in this draft. JSN is a complete receiver, and fill fill the void left by Brandin Cooks nicely.
13. Green Bay Packers - Myles Murphy, EDGE Clemson
Green Bay can go a few ways. Could they finally draft a receiver in the first round, ironically with Aaron Rodgers recently traded away? Could they fill the hole at tight end? Let’s go with another edge rusher in Myles Murphy. A dominant, young defense can open the door for success with a current unknown in Jordan Love. Green Bay as two earlier second round picks, and some good weapons should be available there.
14. New England Patriots - Lukas Van Ness, EDGE Iowa
Van Ness can go much earlier, or much later. Trying to predict what Bill Belichick is going to do in the draft is truly an exercise in futility. Van Ness will be a partner in crime for Matt Judon. Enough said.
15. New York Jets - Broderick Jones, OT Georgia
The Jets already have a very talented defense and a surplus of weapons. Mekhi Becton hasn’t panned out to the level the Jets were hoping for, so adding another tackle here makes a lot of sense. Aaron Rodgers and Breece Hall will appreciate it.
16. Washington Commanders - Brian Branch, DB Alabama
Washington is another team that can go a variety of ways, but they seem to like their Alabama defenders. Branch is a versatile defensive back that can be an enforcer at safety or a physical presence as a slot defender. Wherever he plays on the field, he’ll be making plays.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Joey Porter Jr., CB Penn State
I’d like to see Pittsburgh address the offensive line, but I’m not in love with any of the remaining guys here at this spot. Instead, they can address their biggest need on the defensive side, while taking a player with a ton of fan appeal. Porter has the build and the skills to round out an elite defensive unit.
18. Detroit Lions - Calijah Kancey, DL Pittsburgh
Detroit has drafted very well the past few seasons, and if they manage to add Kancey to the middle of their defensive front, they won’t just be a trendy pick to win the NFC North - they should be the favorites.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tyree Wilson, EDGE Texas Tech
Tampa has plenty of routes to go down as well. Wilson is an edge rusher that could go as high as Houston at 2, but I have him slipping down to Tampa. I wouldn’t anticipate hearing any complaints from the Bucs.
20. Seattle Seahawks - Deonte Banks, CB Maryland
Pairing a physical corner like Deonte Banks with Tariq Woolen and Jamal Adams will be giving Legion of Boom 2.0 vibes. Banks and Carter would be a massive haul for Seattle if that’s who they leave Round 1 with. Watchout for those Seahawks, then.
21. Los Angeles Chargers - Dalton Kincaid, TE Utah
A new offensive scheme has come to town with new OC Kellen Moore, and anew offensive playmaker should follow. Bijan Robinson or a receiver make sense, but there’s bigger hole to fill at tight end. Without a tight end off the board yet, the Chargers take the best on the board in Kincaid.
22. Baltimore Ravens - Jordan Addison, WR USC
Signing Odell Beckham doesn’t take the Ravens out of the running for a receiver in my mind. OBJ isn’t long term answer, and Rashod Bateman isn’t a “takeover” kind of guy. Another option is needed, and Addison provides that and more.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Quinton Johnston, WR TCU
Minnesota’s defense was a mess last year, but this is an offensive focused team. With Adam Thielen out and Dalvin Cook productivity seemingly winding down, adding another playmaker makes sense here. Johnston will compliment Justin Jefferson nicely, as long as he can develop a bit in this scheme.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars - Darnell Wright, OT Tennessee
The Jaguars have a pretty complete team, so beefing up the offensive line for Trevor Lawrence will make for a well spent pick in unfamiliar territory for the Jags here in the backend of round 1.
25. New York Giants - Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
Saquon Barkley got the franchise tag, which he was not overly excited about. The Giants could have the best running back duo in the league to continue to take the pressure off of Daniel Jones. Then in 2024, Bijan Robinson can have the backfieid all to himself.
26. Dallas Cowboys - Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame
Dallas lost Dalton Schultz in free agency, so adding another tight end is imperative for Dallas in this draft. Mayer may be the best, most complete tight end in this class.
27. Buffalo Bills - Zay Flowers, WR Boston College
Buffalo would have loved Bijan here, but Zay Flowers will suffice. Someone needs to step up as a consistent presence across from superstar Stefon Diggs. Flowers can be that game breaker for Josh Allen.
28. Cincinnati Bengals - Darnell Washington, TE Georgia
The Bengals snag one of my favorite prospects here. Washington is another complete tight end, and defense will be unable to account for him with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside.
29. New Orleans Saints - O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL Florida
The Saints went after and got Derek Carr. Giving him time to make plays and carry this team will be the key to success for the Saints in 2023. Torrence will be another great addition, as Penning was a first round rookie last year.
30. Philadelphia Eagles - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
The Eagles have a luxury pick here at the end of the first round. Gibbs would dominate in this Philly offense. Like many in this offense, Gibbs can hurt defense in a variety of ways.
31. Kansas City Chiefs - Will McDonald IV, EDGE Iowa State
The Chiefs begin their second title defense in a couple years by adding a pass rusher. McDonald has great length around the line, and should compliment guys like Chris Jones and George Karlaftis well as a pass rush specialist to get his career started.
Beyond Round 1
There’s always plenty of talent to be found at the top of the second round. This is compounded this year by the fact that the first round is one pick fewer than it is traditionally (thanks a lot, Miami.) With the Pittsburgh Steelers controlling the 32nd overall pick, here’s a few names I can see them going with:
Jack Campbell, LB Iowa - Campbell is the prototype linebacker. He has the build to clog up the middle of a defense in both the run and the pass game. Longer coverage as a play goes on can lead to breakdowns, but not many cover guys and stay on their assignment for beyond several seconds. Campbell would a be a great addition to the historically tough Steelers defense.
Anton Harrison, OT Oklahoma - Harrison doesn’t have the “move inside to guard” conversation surrounding him as it surrounds so many college tackles coming up in the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh needs to address the offensive line for Kenny Pickett and Najee Harris’s sake. Harrison could plug in on either the left or the right side, and instantly act as an upgrade.
What About QB #5?
With this mock, Houston could still land a good quarterback prospect in Hendon Hooker. Between Hooker’s age and the injury he’s coming off of, I had him slipping out of the first round. In reality, he could go to a team like Minnesota or Baltimore (assuming Lamar gets traded, or will get traded.) A team could also trade into the last few picks of the first round to take him, much like Baltimore did for Lamar Jackson back in 2018.
Ultimately, I don’t see a fifth quarterback going in the first round this year. Even with the top 4 believed to all be going in the first dozen picks, the jury is very much split on this class. Many believe Indy will take Levis at 4, while word is teams have Levis graded as a second rounder. It reminds me of the 2022 QB class just a year ago. Malik Willis was talked about as a possible selection to Carolina or Detroit in the top-10 last year. Instead, he fell well into day 2, as Kenny Pickett was the only QB taken in Round 1. Even that selection wasn’t made until the 20th overall pick. One of these top 4 quarterbacks could find themselves on a slide, and Hooker could ultimately be the one paying for it.
Could The Rams Make A Move?
The Rams have not made a first round selection since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017. That trend looks to continue this year, but the Rams intrigue me as a trade-up candidate. They sit at 36th overall, prime position to sneak into the end of the first round for a guy they like. Remember, McVay was a big fan of Cole Strange a year ago, who was a surprise pick by New England with the first round winding down. McVay was as stunned as anyone, giving us a great podium moment. McVay may choose to go get a prospect he loves as the Rams are in a weird place between being a contender and being in a rebuild. Conversely, the Rams have done great managing with the picks they have. A trade down from 36 could net some critical draft capital for the aforementioned potential rebuild in La La Land.
One Bold Prediction…
What woulda draft preview be without a total, nonsensical take? Well that’s just what I’m going to end this blog on. I predict that Arizona will make a flurry of trades. Star players DeAndre Hopkins and Budda Baker are circled in trade rumors. The Cardinals are also rumored to be wanting to trade out of the third overall election. So, I’ll say that ‘Zona indeed trades out of the third spot, perhaps to a team like Tennessee. But why stop there? Send that newly acquired 11th overall pick and Budda Baker to the Detroit Lions for the 6th overall pick, and still get to acquire a premier prospect. Detroit wins by getting another great backend defender in Baker (they also signed C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency), Tennessee assumedly takes the quarterback of their preference, and Arizona kicks off their rebuild in style.
Chaos will ensue with plenty of trades and shock selections, so enjoy the 2023 NFL Draft and make sure to stay tuned to all things Outsider Sports Football for continued coverage and reaction to all the moves to be made!