Fabulous Five: Top Free Agents To-Be in 2023
Will the top free agents return to the teams they played for in 2022? Players’ futures, including Lamar Jackson and Daron Payne, are up in the air with Free Agency just a few weeks away.
We are on the brink of yet another wild NFL offseason. The first step is the Free Agency Frenzy, coinciding with the new league year beginning on March 15 at 4pm EST. Every year there are bigger and bigger names on the move, and that should continue this year. This is a free agency class with elite players at quarterback and the defensive line, among other positions. What will the future hold for the Fabulous Five free agents discussed down below?
Lamar Jackson, QB - BAL
Jackson was a revelation in Baltimore back at the tail end of the 2018 season when he took over for Joe Flacco, winning six games enroute to a division title and a home playoff game. The last first-round draft pick by legend Ozzie Newsome was a unanimous decision for MVP a year later in 2019. Since then though, Lamar has struggled to stay on the field. In both the last two years, Jackson has ended the season by missing several games. Jackson played this year out on his 5th year option, betting on himself. It looked like the gamble paid off early in the season, but things got murky after that. Jackson then opted not to attend Baltimore’s wild card matchup in Cincinnati against the rival Bengals, furthering the doubt of his future in Baltimore. The situation is made more awkward by the fact that Lamar Jackson does not have an agent, and is representing himself. It’s still an uncommon circumstance, but is one that we’ve seen more players doing in recent years. I believe Baltimore places a franchise tag on Lamar, but the question is which one? There’s a compelling case that it will be the non-exclusive franchise tag, which will allow Lamar to negotiate with other franchises. Should he reach a deal with another team, Baltimore will have a chance to match the offer, or receive multiple draft picks for Jackson signing with that new team. It’s the best-for-business decision, and will allow Jackson a chance to stay in Baltimore for the immediate future with hopes to still reach a long-term deal. Any way you slice it, Lamar should be the first domino to fall in the QB carousel, pending Aaron Rodgers’ decision out of his darkness retreat. Derek Carr can sign with a team at any point after being released by Las Vegas. However, teams may be waiting out the Lamar situation before going down the list of available signal callers this offseason.
BEST FITS: Jackson returning to Baltimore isn’t out of the question, but I doubt a long-term deal gets done at this point. I expect to see Jackson traded out of the AFC to Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, or Seattle if they don’t resign Geno Smith. Detroit may be a dark horse team to land Lamar. They finished the season as hot as anyone, and adding a talent like Lamar Jackson could catapult them into a division title.
2. Josh Jacobs, RB - LV
Jacobs had a true breakout year in 2022. Leading the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards will have that effect. It also has the effect of back firing on the Raiders, who declined to pick up Jacobs’ 5th year option, landing him on this impending free agent list this year instead of next. The Raiders are a team, in my eyes, lacking talent. Davante Adams is still a top-5 WR in the league, and Maxx Crosby is a force to be reckoned with on the defensive front. But outside of those two players, who can be a reliable stud player for the next few years? Chandler Jones is still good, but is at the tail end of his career. Darren Waller should no longer be mentioned with the likes of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. So can they afford to just let Jacobs walk? They already cut ties with Derek Carr, who gave this organization everything he could during his tenure there. Jacobs may be another option for a tag-and-trade, or could find himself signing a short term deal to stick around for the presumed rebuild. Conventional wisdom says not to pay big money to the running back position, so we’ll see where the Raiders opt to go
BEST FITS: One way or another, I expect Josh Jacobs to be a Raider in 2023. If not for Jacobs, this team’s 2022 season would have been abysmal. With Carr’s contract off the books and a presumed rookie coming to town, Vegas can afford to pay Jacobs “hero money”, as he described it to Chris Simms. Philadelphia would be my pick should Jacobs end up anywhere else. Vegas regrets not picking up the 5th year option, and now they have to figurately and literally pay for it.
3. Saquon Barkley
Time to go against conventional wisdom. Pay Saquon big money! He’s no ordinary running back. He’s a generational talent, and has been since entering the league as the 2nd overall draft pick in 2018. He was also a contender for the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year, which went to fellow free agent Geno Smith. Barkley is the engine that keeps the Giants offense humming and should have another phenomenal season in Brian Daboll’s system in year 2 of his head coaching tenure. The wrench in this is that Big Blue also has to make a decision on QB Daniel Jones, who’s 5th year option was not picked up. That synchronizes the expiration of Barkley’s and Jones’ contracts. The Giants will likely use the franchise tag on one of these players, but they put themselves at risk of letting the non-tagged player hit the open market. The Giants should do everything in their power to retain both players. That may be easier said than done, however.
BEST FITS: I think the Giants retain both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones. How they manage to do it is beyond me. I think Barkley should get a long term deal, but I would not franchise tag Daniel Jones. Should Barkley hit the market, teams like Miami, Buffalo, and rival Philadelphia make sense, but almost half the league will likely have interest in Saquon’s services.
4. Javon Hargave, DL - PHI
What a force Javon Hargrave has been for Philadelphia. An underrated signing back in 2020, Hargrave has been a consistent presence up front for the Eagles. Especially so this year, when he had 11 sacks amongst a dominant pass rush group that saw multiple players eclipse the 10-sack mark. Hargrave should be a top priority for GM Howie Roseman to bring back following Philly’s Super Bowl appearance. But the list of free agents in the City of Brotherly Love is quite lengthy. Fletcher Cox, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Miles Sanders, and TJ Edwards are just some of the names Roseman also needs to consider bringing back for another run at a championship. This Eagles roster could look very different in a few weeks’ time.
BEST FITS: I’d do my best to keep this defensive line in tact. Philly is getting older on both sides of the trenches, so Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham could be on their way out. Even if those two stay with the Eagles, a duo of Hargrave and Jordan Davis on the interior has to be enticing. Should Hargrave sign elsewhere, a reunion in Pittsburgh could make sense. Plenty of team will vie for a disruptive force on the interior d-line.
5. Daron Payne, DL - WAS
Another NFC East defensive lineman rounds out this list. Payne has had a steady career for the Washington “insert-name-here”s. He has 26 career sacks, with almost half of them coming this past year in 2022. He’s part of an elite defensive front that also includes former Alabama teammate Johnathan Allen, as well as the 2020 2nd overall pick Chase Young. Allen and star WR Terry McLaurin have already made big money extensions, and Chase Young’s own potential big money deal is right around the corner.
Head coach Ron Rivera has said it’s “no guarantee” Young’s 5th year option is picked up though. All of this may complicate Payne’s potential of staying with the team that drafted him back in 2018. It’s a situation reminiscent of San Francisco dealing away star DT DeForest Buckner for cap purposes. Washington would love to bring Payne back, but that hasn’t stopped Cowboys’ star defender Micah Parsons from recruiting the fellow NFC East QB hunter. This is one situation I’ll be keeping a close eye on come March 15th, should Washington opt not to place the franchise tag on Daron Payne.
BEST FITS: I think Payne does end up joining the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is need of more playmakers all around their team, and Payne would be a big help in solidifying the defensive front. Going from Johnathan Allen and Chase Young to DeMarcus Lawrence and Parsons would be a big upgrade in Payne’s environment.