Moving Ahead: 3 AFC Teams and Where They’re Trending in 2023
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, Bills WR Stefon Diggs, and Dolphins QB Tua Tagavailoa. Will these 3 AFC stars and their respective teams find repeat playoff success in 2023?
Earlier this week we identified which NFC playoff teams are trending up, trending down, and who looks to keep their spot in the NFC hierarchy. Today, we’ll do that same exercise for the NFL’s power conference, the AFC. This conference is populated with trendy teams, young quarterbacks, and potential dynasties. Back-to-back years this conference has come down to the Chiefs and the Bengals. The expectation is for that to continue in the years ahead. But what does the future hold for some other heavyweights in the AFC?
ON THE RISE
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins were back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016 this year. That was in no small part due to first-year head coach Mike McDaniel, who brought a dynamic offense with him from San Francisco. Miami also brought in superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill via a trade with Kansas City, pairing the fastest wide receiver in the NFL with fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle. They got out to an equally fast 3-0 start before QB Tua Tagavailoa starting dealing with a concussion, which would persist as an issue the rest of the season. Miami was a team of streaks in 2022, winning 3 games, then losing 3 games, winning 5 games, then losing 5 games. They got by the rival Jets in Week 18 to secure the less-than-coveted seventh seed in the playoffs, earning themselves a third game against another division rival, the Buffalo Bills.
Rookie Skylar Thompson (the third string QB) was not given much credit heading into that game, and we at Outsider Sports were no different from the rest of the NFL media. But a surprise close game ensued, and convinced me that had Tua been healthy and playing, the Dolphins would have advanced to the Divisional Round. At the time of this writing, Tua has cleared through the NFL’s concussion protocol. If he has an offseason free of setbacks or lingering symptoms, and goes through 2023 healthy, Miami has a bright season ahead of them. A true offensive genius is in place as their head coach. Defensive genius Vic Fangio joins the staff as their new defensive coordinator. Fangio flared out as a head coach himself, but some people can be average head coaches, yet be an elite coordinator in their field of experience. Fangio fits that bill. Miami does suffer from losing their first-round pick due to the Sean Payton and Tom Brady team-up rumors in South Beach. Health is the biggest factor for this roster, and if the Dolphins have that in 2023, they could be a dark horse candidate to win the AFC East in 2023.
FUTURE IN DOUBT
Buffalo Bills
What else does Buffalo need to do? Consistently a preseason favorite to win it all, Buffalo has now failed in each of the last three years to reach the Super Bowl. There may be more wrong with this team than meets the eye. When your franchise quarterback is your only consistent rushing threat, that’s a problem. Stefon Diggs is a top-5 wide receiver in the NFL, but who will step up alongside him? Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie have shown flashes, but will either warrant getting paid like a WR2? Like many teams around the league, the Bills’ offensive line could use some reinforcements. NBC Sports’ Peter King shares these same thoughts in a Twitter response shown above. Defensively, Buffalo needs to find a pass rusher. They tried to solve this issue by signing Von Miller last offseason, but he went down to an injury. He was never going to be a long-term answer, either.
Another fair criticism is that perhaps Sean McDermott has run his course as head coach. Brian Daboll leaves to be the Giants head coach, and it is no coincidence that Josh Allen showed some signs of regression this season. The league as a whole has shifted to much more of an offensive philosophy, and McDermott’s defensive mind without an offensive guru (like Daboll) might be worn out in western New York. Now, that’s not to say McDermott should be replaced right now, but Buffalo’s GM Brandon Beane may need to reevaluate the offensive coordinator position, and keep an open mind should the Bills’ 2023 season end prematurely in January again instead of February. New England and Miami could threaten for the division as well, and if the Jets figure out their quarterback position, could find themselves in the playoffs next year. Like Dallas in the NFC, there’s more questions than answers in Buffalo for a team that stands as a contender year-to-year. Unlike Dallas in the NFC, Buffalo has a lot more competition in a loaded AFC.
ON HOLD
Jacksonville Jaguars
Make no mistake about it: the arrow is very much pointing up for the Jaguars in 2023. The Jaguars were the true underdog (undercat?) of the AFC this year. They got hot at the right time, and won a weak division in the AFC South. They have a head coach with a Super Bowl pedigree in Doug Pederson, a first-overall generational talent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, weapons on offense, and a young, opportunistic defense. With a future as bright as theirs seems, why are the Jaguars on hold?
For starters, these cats need to show they can not only hang with the AFC big dogs, but beat them. They gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they had in the Divisional Round, but still lost to Patrick Mahomes on one leg. The Jaguars will have a chance to prove themselves against the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals in 2023 thanks to playing a first-place schedule. They’ll also potentially add star WR Calvin Ridley to this offense. While I don’t think Jacksonville is quite ready to make a 2021-Bengals type run, they should be the favorite to repeat as AFC South champs in 2023. Houston and Indianapolis are rebuilding. Tennessee has a multitude of issues they need to sort out. Jacksonville is the only team in this division with their arrow pointing up, but what’s holding them back is proof they can take on Burrow or Mahomes and establish themselves as an AFC powerhouse. We’ve seen this franchise have great seasons before. Only a few years ago in 2017, these Jags had an AFC Championship Game appearance. From 2018 through 2021, they only won 15 games in those 4 seasons. The biggest question Jacksonville has to answer in 2023 is: can they back up this 2022 season with similar success?