Making the Case: Carolina Panthers Poised For a Breakout 2023 Campaign
The Carolina Panthers finished 2022 with a very sub-par 7-10 record, but that still felt like an over-achievement. Amid the firing of head coach Matt Rhule and trading away superstar Christian McCaffrey during the season, the Panthers were still in contention for the NFC South crown until the very end. So what has them poised for bigger things in 2023?
Photo credit to Chris Carlson / AP staff
They Finished 2022 The Way You Want
As mentioned above, the Carolina Panthers endured a head coaching change and the loss of their franchise player. After a 1-4 start to the year, Matt Rhule was dismissed as the lead guy for Carolina. Steve Wilkes was named the interim coach for the remainder of the year. Wilkes got a bad deal after one year in Arizona, being fired after just one year following the 2018 season. Arizona did finish the year as the worst team in the NFL, but they did so with a rookie quarterback and a talent-less roster. Arizona moved off both coach and quarterback, and while the early returns were good, the Cardinals have already found themselves in another rebuild. Wilkes got the most out of a Panthers squad that felt they wouldn’t climb out of that 1-4 hole.
Steve Wilkes dropped a game to the Los Angeles Rams in his debut as interim coach. Days later, a deal was made to send star running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers for a load of draft capital. Three days later, the Panthers got a statement win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady. In fact, the loss of McCaffrey actually led to the Panthers’ running game getting better. D’Onta Foreman led the way with 118 rushing yards, and Chuba Hubbard contributed another 63 yards and a touchdown. This win really brought the locker room together for Carolina, and they would continue to lean on old school football - a strong rushing attack and great defense - for the remainder of the season.
Another loss followed, but it was an overtime dramatic finish in Atlanta against the rival Falcons. The rest of the season saw some good wins, including a revenge win over Atlanta just two weeks later, a dominating win over the Broncos in a Super Bowl 50 call back, and wins over two of the hottest upstart teams in the NFC: Seattle and Detroit. Had Carolina not dropped a Week 17 game to Tampa, they would have made the playoffs as NFC South champs. Would they have fared much better against Dallas than Tampa did? Likely not, but it would have been a major achievement for a team that sat at 1-5 to make the playoffs, even if it would have been with a losing record. Despite all that, it was clear this team didn’t mail it in like some other bottom-tier teams.
Laying the Groundwork
Image credit to the Carolina Panthers
The first step for the Carolina Panthers’ offseason? Deciding on their next head coach. The Matt Rhule experiment did not work, so it was clear a coach with NFL experience was the right direction. I was a big proponent for Carolina retaining Steve Wilkes, as he fully had the locker room bought in. Instead, Carolina made the first domino in the head coaching carousel fall by bringing in Frank Reich. Like Matt Rhule, Reich was dismissed as a head coach during the 2022 season from Indianapolis. As a Colts fan, I just want to say this: I love Frank Reich. Things just got stale in Indy, and it was time to move on. I didn’t think it would happen during the season, but I also didn’t think Jeff Saturday would be the replacement. What really killed Frank Reich’s tenure was the lack of stability at the games most important position: quarterback. Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan is a good quarterback group on paper, but not when you’re jumping from each one to the next year after year. Reich knew he would need to avoid this problem again, as Carolina had major QB-question marks themselves. First things first, Reich needed to build out a good staff.
To start, Parks Frazier follows along with Reich from Indianapolis, where he was part of the offensive staff and even named the play caller once Jeff Saturday was named interim coach for the Colts. Thomas Brown leaves Sen McVay’s staff in Los angeles to be Reich’s offensive coordinator. Former Colts and Lions head coach Jim Caldwell will serve as offensive advisor, as well. Duece Staley and Josh McCown - two former players rising the ranks as offensive coaches - also join Reich in Carolina as position coaches, running backs and quarterbacks, respectively. Staley will also serve as assistant head coach, a big promotion following his time with Dan Campbell in Detroit.
Maybe my favorite hiring was prying away Ejiro Evero from Denver. Evero will be defensive coordinator, the same position he served with Denver. It’s a lateral move for Evero, but he’s hoping for a better work environment. Evero actually declined to be the Broncos’ interim head coach after they fired Nathaniel Hackett with just a few weeks left in the season. Evero had the Broncos’ defense as the lone bright spot on the season, and he now takes over another talented, young defense in Carolina. He’ll go from Pat Surtain and Justin Simmons to Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn, and Brian Burns. It’s an all-star staff that you’d expect to see for the Pro Bowl or the Senior Bowl, but the Carolina Panthers hope that this will be the foundation to build a year to year contender with. But the Carolina rebuild did NOT stop there.
Carolina Panthers Go All-In
The Panthers clearly gave up a ton of assets to move up to the first overall selection of the 2023 Draft with the Chicago Bears. It was likely Chicago would trade down, but Carolina was a bit of a surprise team to make it happen. It was obvious they fell in love with one of the top quarterback prospects. The only question was with whom? Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis were all rumoured at one point to be the apple of GM Scott Fitterer’s eye. This answer would come at the end of April, and we still had some great moves throughout March to cover. Carolina gave up another key offensive weapon in WR D.J. Moore in the trade up with Chicago, which left their offensive cupboard even more bare. It was clear that Carolina would need to look through the free agency market to add a bit of firepower.
Carolina added some reinforcements all over the team. On offense, QB Andy Dalton was brought in to act as a mentor, backup, and perhaps early season starter should their rookie of choice not be ready to go Week 1. Running back Miles Sanders came down from Philadelphia. Sanders had a great 2022, which started by him saying “don’t draft me in fantasy.” I wish I didn’t listen to him. Sanders was a key piece in Philly’s offensive juggernaut season. A couple of receivers come down from the NFC North, as well. Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark depart from Minnesota and Detroit, respectively. Thielen may be in the tail end of his career, and Chark has struggled with injuries, but they are both a big shot in the arm for a receiver room that desperately needed one. Center Bradley Bozeman was a big re-signing for the team as well, ensuring an underrated offensive line retains some consistency. Hayden Hurst also comes in at the tight end position. He is returning to the NFC South, where he spent some time in Atlanta. Hurst is an underrated tight end to me, being overshadowed by fellow 2018 pick Mark Andrews in Baltimore, then bouncing to Atlanta and Cincinnati. He’ll fit in nicely in Reich’s tight end friendly offensive scheme. Joining Hurst from Cincinnati is safety Von Bell, who also returns to the NFC South after starting his career in New Orleans. He’ll be a great mentor in the back end for the young playmakers like Jaycee Horn and Jeremy Chinn.
The coaching staff is set, and the team had a great, savvy free agency haul. All that was left was a home-run draft.
Draft Night
Photo credit to David Eulitt / Getty Images
The Panthers ended the 2023 Draft with only five selections. They assumedly got the quarterback of the future, and paired a rookie receiver to grow with him. Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo should be mainstays in Carolina for years to come. Their other three picks (EDGE DJ Johnson, OL Chandler Zavala, S Jammie Robinson) should all act as depth/development pieces. But all eyes are on the first overall pick, Bryce Young. Young, to me, is the most pro-ready of these quarterbacks. His ability to process things as they happen was tops in the class. It’s a measurable that really caught on with draft analysts and scouts alike. The biggest knock on Young was his size. I don’t subscribe to the height argument for the quarterback position. However, I am slightly concerned about his frame. Should Young put on a few more pounds of muscle and show a god display of durability in taking hits, these concerns will be quickly thrown out the window. Young’s game is pretty complete. He can play from the pocket and deliver accurate throws, while also being more than capable to take things on the run outside of the pocket.
Their other big draftee was wide receiver Jonathan Mingo. Mingo had a meteoric rise up draft boards. By the time the week of the draft approached, he was floated as a late first round pick. As we know, Mingo was selected in the early second round. Mingo follows suit with A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf as Ole Miss receivers to come up in the draft. Mingo has the kind of build you want from a modern day NFL receiver. He’s 6’2” and 220 pounds, giving him a terrific frame to bully cornerbacks across the league. Add that to a respectable 4.46 40-yard dash time and crisp route running, and Mingo could be a stellar pick for Carolina.
Looking Ahead to 2023
With a stellar offseason in the books, what separates Carolina from other darlings like the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets? Well, it all has to do with where Carolina sits in the NFL.
The Schedule
Carolina was just one of many teams that had fun with their schedule release (come on, Arizona, that was lame). What makes it even more fun is the fact that Carolina has fourth easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. On the other side of that coin is the fact that New Orleans and Atlanta have the top two spots on those projections. Carolina has only six games against teams that made the playoffs a year ago, with two of those being division rival Tampa Bay. The other four being against Minnesota, Miami, Dallas, and Jacksonville. All of those teams can be caught on a bad day, as they are projected to either take a step back from a year ago, or remain difficult to predict. Minnesota had an unbelievable record a year ago in one score games, and some natural regression should factor in. Miami may be the strongest on that list, but what if Tua misses games again? Dallas always seems to find a way to underperform, and Jacksonville needs to prove that they’re legit before they can be labeled as “heavy favorite” anywhere. One note to keep an eye on for that big cat matchup: Frank Reich was Doug Pederson’s offensive coordinator in that Eagles 2017 Super Bowl victory.
The Division
The NFC South was wide open last year. In fact, it almost seemed nobody wanted to win the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got into the playoffs with an 8-9 record, spurring the old argument about playoff seeding. Why should a team with a losing record get to host a playoff game? The Bucs’ performance against Dallas further fueled that debate. All three other teams in the division finished with a 7-10 record, leading many to believe that this should be a competitive, albeit not so threatening, division in 2023. But Carolina stands out to me. They have the best coach in the division, and at worst the second best quarterback in the division. This may be a hot take, but I’ll take an unproven rookie in Bryce Young over Derek Carr. The Panthers also had a healthy 4-2 record in the division a year ago, sweeping New Orleans and splitting with Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Much of the strength of schedule rankings banks on the NFC South being weak competitively. Should Carolina take hold of their division rivals, they’ll establish themselves nicely in the NFL hierarchy. The biggest external proponent for Carolina’s divisional success that I’m predicting? Tom Brady has finally retired, leaving the Buccaneers to bank on a resurgence for Baker Mayfield.
The Conference
The AFC is the NFL’s power conference, littered with top tier quarterbacks, strong offenses, and elite talent all around. Trying to predict who will represent the AFC in the playoffs may be a fool’s errand, especially those wild card spots. But in the NFC? There’s question marks all over the place. Even the top teams - Philadelphia and San Francisco - have questions that need answered. Philly lost some key pieces, including both of their coordinators. San Francisco still has some degree of a quarterback conundrum. Here’s just a few more from elsewhere in the NFC:
Can McVay get the Rams back on track?
Will Green Bay look like 2020/2021 or 2022 with Jordan Love?
How high can Detroit rise?
Will Dallas figure themselves out?
What level can the Giants reach in Year 2 under Brian Daboll?
Every team has questions they need to figure out, but its no debate that the NFC is obviously weaker than the AFC. So my only question for Carolina is: can they take advantage?
The Final Verdict
A year ago was the first blog I wrote here for Outsider Sports, where I made the case for why the Philadelphia Eagles were going to be one of the best teams in the NFC. As it happened, they were even better than I imagined, walking to the first seed, and going to the Super Bowl before being on the wrong side of the Patrick Mahomes/Kansas City dynasty. I see a lot of similarities in opportunity for the Panthers this year. It’s a wide open division in which they had success already last year. Upgrades in every facet from coaching and personnel will assist in team performance elsewhere. Carolina plays the NFC North and AFC South this year, two division filled with intrigue and cautious optimism across all eight teams in those divisions. Between those matchups, their divisional games, and games against Seattle, Miami, and Dallas, I can see the Panthers winning 10 or 11 games. They’ll take the NFC South division crown, likely locking up the number 3 seed. Depending on who the 6 seed is, Carolina could find themselves in the Divisional Round. I don’t think the cohesiveness nor playoff experience is there to get farther than that, but 2023 will be a great season for Panthers fans, and will get the Frank Reich and Bryce Young Era of Panthers football off to a fantastic start.