The Outsider Sports Football Column - Sept. 6th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Image credit to NFL.com
Welcome to the Outsider Sports Football Column! We’ve finally arrived to Week 1 of the NFL regular season, with the Detroit Lions heading into Arrowhead Stadium to face the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. After another eventful offseason, let’s start the column off with three things to remember heading into the season.
Three Things to Remember:
1. Rookies are rookies
We’ve kind of been spoiled the last few years haven’t we? Young stars are the backbone of today’s NFL. Think of the careers the likes of Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, and Patrick Surtain II have already had, and that only scratches the surfaces of those young stars. We are truly in a new era. But, for every Justin Herbert rookie year there is a Kenny Pickett rookie year. Sometimes expectations are placed too high, ensuring these young players could never hit those lofty goals in their rookie year. Is Bryce Young is the savior Carolina expects in a wide open NFC South? Is Anthony Richardson the golden ticket off the QB carousel for Indianapolis? Will Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith truly go down as draft day steals for Philadelphia? What of new top receiver Zay Flowers in Baltimore? I believe and hope the answer to all of those questions is a resounding YES, but stranger things have happened in this league. Temper expectations, and focus more on how these players look compared to the numbers in the stat sheet
2. Hard Knocks Hype
Robert Saleh, like Dan Campbell a year ago, has me ready to run through a brick wall and go to battle. But let’s step back and take a look at the Jets. A 7-10 record a year ago had everyone saying “they’re a quarterback away.” Well, the Jets went out and got a future Hall of Famer to supplant and mentor Zach Wilson in Aaron Rodgers. Only one year removed from back-to-back MVP awards, Rodgers had a bit of a down year in 2022. I think he bounces back to MVP form, but the “QB away” narrative has some pitfalls to beware of. For every Tom Brady going to Tampa Bay, there is a Russell Wilson going to Denver. I think the Jets finally get back into the playoffs, but it will be as a Wild Card team instead of a division winner.
3. The Arizona Cardinals are still an NFL team
Look, the word “tank” as been thrown around plenty the past few months when talking about the Arizona Cardinals. They were one of the worst teams last year, and managed to not improve in a single facet outside of future draft capital. Despite the Paris Johnson selection in the draft, this offensive line is still subpar. Outside of Budda Baker, this defense fields no impressive playmakers. Offensively, you have Hollywood Brown in a room b himself. Who knows when Kyler comes back from his ACL injury last season, and if it will even matter for ‘Zona. I will say, however: it is harder to lose 17 games than it is to win 17 games.
Three Things to Look Forward To:
1. Upset brewing on Opening Night?
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet right now. But in opening week in his career, Mahomes has been otherworldly:
With Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs can win any game they’re in. But defensive leader Chris Jones is away from the team with a contract dispute, and star TE Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee earlier this week. He may still play Week 1, but will certainly be limited if he does. KC’s title defense is off to a rocky start, and an opportunistic Lions team may be looking to send a message to the rest of the NFL on Kickoff Thursday.
2. Who Will Be the Surprise Team of 2023?
The turnover rate of the NFL Playoffs speaks for itself. Every year there is a team or two that comes out of nowhere and goes on a run at the right time. Jacksonville and the New York Giants did it last year. Not too long ago, Cincinnati was viewed as a perennial contender….for a high draft pick. The NFL Draft is a major fortune changer, but the winds of change are beyond any man’s control. Who could be the big breakout team this year? Well, the NFC is certainly more wide open this year. Teams like the Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders, and Detroit Lions could replace the likes of Tampa Bay and Seattle in the playoffs. In the AFC, is it a bold prediction to say all four teams in the AFC North could make the playoffs? To highlight one though, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a very interesting team in my eyes, seemingly fielding a suddenly dangerous offense to complement their still elite defense. Head coach Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing record in a season yet, and I don’t see how that streak doesn’t continue in 2023.
3. You Can’t Win in Week 1, But You Can Lose in Week 1
An old fantasy football adage I love is “You can’t win your league at the draft, but you can lose it.” Your initial fantasy draft determines the foundation for your season. Likewise, teams can’t win their division in week 1, but there are some crucial matchups during opening week that could come back into play at the end of the year when discussing playoff seeding and the wild card chase. Here are the matchups I have my eye on:
Bengals @ Browns
Panthers @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Giants
Bills @ Jets
The teams that lose these matchups should have no reason to panic heading into week 2, but the results of these games could mean getting into the playoffs or sitting at home as we roll into January. Speaking of game results, let’s get into some game picks!
Game Picks: Week 1 (0-0)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Lions @ Chiefs
49ers @ Steelers
Buccaneers @ Vikings
Bengals @ Browns
Texans @ Ravens
Panthers @ Falcons
Cardinals @ Commanders
Jaguars @ Colts
Titans @ Saints
Raiders @ Broncos
Eagles @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks
Dolphins @ Chargers
Packers @ Bears
Cowboys @ Giants
Bills @ Jets
Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
Following this initial full-32 countdown, we’ll be doing these power rankings similarly to how our MLB and NHL power rankings are done. A panel of us will choose our top-10, with first place being awarded 10 points, and tenth place being awarded one point. A consensus top-10 will be determined by point totals. Heading into the season however, I want to showcase where I think all 32 teams sit in the current hierarchy. For full thoughts on these teams heading into the season, check out our Division Deep Dive episodes of the Outsider Sports Football Podcast on YouTube and Spotify.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
8. New York Giants
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. New York Jets
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Detroit Lions
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Minnesota Vikings
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Green Bay Packers
19. Washington Commanders
20. Cleveland Browns
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Atlanta Falcons
23. New Orleans Saints
24. Tennessee Titans
25. Los Angeles Rams
26. New England Patriots
27. Indianapolis Colts
28. Denver Broncos
29. Chicago Bears
30. Houston Texans
31. Las Vegas Raiders
32. Arizona Cardinals