The Outsider Sports Football Column - September 13th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Matt Freed / AP Photo
Kickoff Weekend of the NFL was certainly worth the wait through the summer, wasn’t it? Some teams were as advertised, and others struggled a bit out of the gate. These couple days following are generally called “Overreaction Monday”, so I’ll try to dig a little deeper and decipher: who is going to be okay? Who is going to be in trouble? Let’s take a look at some of the fallout from Week 1….
Lions, Tigers, and Bears…
The Detroit Lions did exactly what I and many others predicted they would do: storm into Kansas City and upset the defending world champion Chiefs. It helped that DT Chris Jones and TE Travis Kelce didn’t suit up for Kansas city. It also helped that Kadarius Toney did suit up, because wow, that was one of the worst performances I’ve seen. Kansas City will be fine, with Jones already back with the team and Kelce expected to only miss the one game. But make no mistake, Detroit is for real. With so many young players, the Lions will only get better as they get more experience under their collective belts.
The Cincinnati Bengals laid an absolute egg in Cleveland. Joe Burrow is currently wanted for stagecoach robbery, but he has a chance to clear his name. Burrow’s tenure with the Bengals has included only 1 opening weekend victory, and even that came in overtime. After another missed preseason, let’s treat this as a tune-up game for Cincy, although the record will count against them down the line.
The Chicago Bears were the worst team in the NFL last season, no way to sugarcoat it. They had a solid offseason, including some defensive free agent signings and a savvy trade down from first overall. That trade net them WR DJ Moore from Carolina. The hope is he can aid Justin Fields’ development as a passer, much like what Stefon Diggs did for Josh Allen. The problem is, DJ Moore is not Stefon Diggs. The highlights, err..lowlights, of Chase Claypool made Kadarius Toney seem a little better off. Toney was at least trying. The Bears might be another year away from being competitive. Jacksonville needed back to back first overall picks and a new coach to get on track.
Potent Pirates?
A pair of teams with intertwined histories pulled off some upsets this weekend. The Las Vegas Raiders went into Denver to ruin Sean Payton’s debut has the Broncos’ head coach. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers immediately exposed the Minnesota Vikings, also on the road. Neither of these teams had high, or even moderate, expectations coming into the year. But were we too quick to write them off? All Jimmy G does is win, wherever he goes, And this Bucs team still has a lot of leftover talent from their Super Bowl victory and subsequent division championships over the past three seasons. Neither can go the distance, but Seattle surprised many last year. Could the Raiders or Bucs be that comes-out-of-nowhere team in 2023? A road victory in week 1 is certainly a good first step.
Other Quick Thoughts
Not much was thought of the Arizona Cardinals coming into 2023, but they almost knocked off Washington to get started. They’ll still be in contention for USC’s Caleb Williams, but remember what I wrote in this column last week: Arizona is still an NFL team, and they have a chance at an upset any given week.
The Green Bay Packers may have done it again. Jordan Love looked poised and on point for their route of the rival Bears. Once Christian Watson returns to the lineup, the Pack could look to return to the promised land.
The preseason darling Pittsburgh Steelers have a tough assignment to open up the year. San Francisco is one of the best teams in the league, and Cleveland in week 2 doesn’t get much better. Remember: no team that played San Fran in 2022 won their next game. The 49ers are a physical team, and that takes a toll. I project a rough start for the Steelers, but Tomlin will get them back on track in time to make a run.
The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers had as great of a game as we all expected, right? Both teams expect to be squarely in the AFC playoff picture, and Miami has a key victory that could come into play when seeding needs to get settled come January.
Game Picks: Week 2 (12-4)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Vikings @ Eagles
Packers @ Falcons
Raiders @ Bills
Ravens @ Bengals
Seahawks @ Lions
Colts @ Texans
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Bears @ Buccaneers
Chargers @ Titans
Giants @ Cardinals
49ers @ Rams
Jets @ Cowboys
Commanders @ Broncos
Dolphins @ Patriots
Saints @ Panthers
Browns @ Steelers
Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
T9. Buffalo Bills (0-1) 8 points
T9. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) 8 points
8. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) 17 points
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) 18 points
6. Detroit Lions (1-0) 22 points
5. Miami Dolphins (1-0) 41 points
T3. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) 42 points
T3. Dallas Cowboys (1-0) 42 points
2. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) 55 points
1. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) 57 points
Receiving Votes: Los Angeles Chargers 7 points Cleveland Browns 7 points Green Bay Packers 6 points New York Jets 4 points
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Detroit Lions
Corey Jason: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns
Dylan Mehl: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals