The Outsider Sports Football Column - September 20th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Brett Davis / USA TODAY Sports
Week 2 of the NFL reminded us all of the unpredictability of this game we watch. I referred to this past week of action as “The Week of Upsets.” The Titans and Seahawks pulled out overtime victories over the Chargers and Lions, respectively. Atlanta jumped to 2-0, squeaking by Green Bay by a single point. Arizona almost pulled off an upset, but a resurgent Giants squad dashed their hopes. Denver meanwhile dropped another close, winnable game at home. To wrap it all up, we unfortunately had another severe injury on Monday Night Football…
Current State of the Running Back
Cleveland Browns’ star runner Nick Chubb suffered a catastrophic knee injury in their primetime game in Pittsburgh. It was so devastating, that the Monday Night Football broadcast did not replay the footage. Not a good sign. Chubb was ruled out for the season shortly after the game, and the hope is that he only misses the rest of this season. It’s a painful reminder of just how physical this game is, especially for the running back position. Plenty of discourse has surrounded this group this calendar year. Austin Ekeler and Jonathan Taylor both requested trades. Neither played in week 2, with Taylor on the PUP list (Physically Unable to Perform, out at least 4 weeks). Joe Mixon took a pay cut just to stick with the Bengals. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley waited as long as possible to resolve their franchise tag situations. Both would sign one year deals that essentially act as more player friendly versions of the tag. Now Barkley is hurt again, and Jacobs has proved frustratingly inefficient after leading the league in rushing a season ago.
Aside from Christian McCaffrey, not many of the “star” running backs have had a good start to the season. Instead, its young players like Kyren Williams (Rams), Brian Robinson (Commanders), and Bijan Robinson (Falcons) leading the way. We’ll likely have more debates about this position group this coming offseason. But what can really be done? Some star running backs could point to current situations like Minnesota in the hopes to gain more leverage. Minnesota cut ties with a star back of their own in Dalvin Cook, turning the keys to Alex Mattison. Mattison was a dependable start when Cook dealt with injuries, but through two games of it being Mattison’s job, he’s left more to be desired. Is he talented enough to carry the workload? Tony Pollard has done pretty well without Ezekiel Elliott in front of him now down in Dallas. The state of the running back position will be a hot topic as we move through the next couple years in the NFL.
Story Lines From Week 2
Are a couple of AFC teams in trouble? The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are both sitting at 0-2, despite being two favorites to be in the playoffs. Let’s start with Cincy. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and is now the highest paid. But he’s played more like a backup than an elite starter thus far. Following another tough loss to a division rival, reports are that Burrow reaggravated a calf injury that sidelined him through the end of training camp and the preseason. This season was expected to be the final year this offensive ensemble would all be together, and starting winless against division opponents is not the way you want to start.
For the Chargers, what can really be said? Whether its been in Los Angeles or San Diego, the Chargers have always been an enigma. They lose heartbreaking games in almost hilarious fashion. Who could forget the year they fielded the number one offense and defense, but missed the playoffs entirely because they also had the worst special teams unit? Or their complete collapse against Jacksonville in the playoffs last season that Brandon Staley swears hasn’t carried over? Staley may not need to worry much longer, because I believe there is a strong chance he is replaced with Kellen Moore during the season in an effort to right the ship. The offense is humming as expected, but the defense has no excuse for playing this putrid for the talent they have on that side of the ball.
Other Quick Thoughts
Staying with the Chargers, their Week 3 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings is as crucial as a Week 3 game can be. Loser drops to 0-3, with hopes for playing in January all but washed away. Sitting at 1-2 gives you life, but it’s almost a false hope unless issues can actually be addressed.
Is there still hope that Zach Wilson can turn things around for the New York Jets? Thrust into action on an emotional stage, I don’t blame Wilson for a less than stellar showing against the Bills in Week 1. Then he was tasked with going on the road against the only defense better than his own in Dallas. It’s a tough stretch, and the hope was that Wilson could sit and develop. Instead, he’s been thrown back into the fire with a schedule as tough as the come. Hopes were high for Gang Green, and it’s up to Zach Wilson to get these Jets flying.
The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins both had strong wins over division rivals in Week 2, and have looked like the top teams in the conference through two weeks. Can they keep the pace? Baltimore faces an Indianapolis Colts team that may be without promising rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson (concussion), while Miami hosts the 0-2 Denver Broncos. Both teams are also waiting out for reinforcements. Baltimore’s injury report was filled out after week 1, while Miami can’t wait for star corner Jalen Ramsey to return. Both teams have the opportunity to jump to 3-0 this week, and get stronger as the season rolls on.
Game Picks: Week 3 (22-10 season, 10-6 last week)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Giants @ 49ers
Titans @ Browns
Falcons @ Lions
Ravens @ Colts
Saints @ Packers
Texans @ Jaguars
Broncos @ Dolphins
Chargers @ Vikings
Patriots @ Jets
Bills @ Commanders
Panthers @ Seahawks
Cowboys @ Cardinals
Bears @ Chiefs
Steelers @ Raiders
Eagles @ Buccaneers
Rams @ Bengals
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) 56 points
2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) 52 points
T3. Dallas Cowboys (2-0) 46 points
T3. Miami Dolphins (2-0) 46 points
5. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) 40 points
6. Baltimore Ravens (2-0) 29 points
T7. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) 14 points
T7. Buffalo Bills (1-1) 14 points
9. Atlanta Falcons (2-0) 7 points
T10. Detroit Lions (1-1) 6 points
T10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) 6 points
Also Receiving Votes: Green Bay Packers 4pts Washington Commanders 3pts Cincinnati Bengals 2pts
Cleveland Browns 2pts New Orleans Saints 2pts Los Angeles Rams 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders
Dylan Mehl: Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Commanders
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions