The Outsider Sports Football Column - September 27th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to CBS Sports
Week 3 of the NFL had it all: blowouts, upsets, overtime thrillers, and the Kelce and Swift duo had another successful week. I am of course talking about Philadelphia’s Jason Kelce and D’Andre Swift. Who else would I be talking about? But this slate of games helped further shape our viewpoints of plenty of these teams. So, who is setup for a productive rest of season? Who can overcome a rocky start? Finally, whose season is really over before it began?
The Good…
The Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers, are the remaining undefeated teams. The Eagles and 49ers still look to be the best teams in the NFC, while Miami has made an early case for being the best team over in the more competitive AFC. Without star receiver Jaylen Waddle and competent running back Jeff Wilson, Miami proceeded to drop SEVENTY. POINTS. SEVENTY! Unheard of in this era of the NFL. Instead of tying for the league record of points in a game by kicking a final field goal, Miami knelt the ball to run out the clock. How classy! It really couldn't have happened to a worse person either in Sean Payton. I have a variety of reasons as to why I am not a fan of Coach Payton’s, but I’ll leave it at that.
Philadelphia seems to finally be getting going, but it’s scary that we know they can be even better. Some kinks still need to get worked out, especially on offense. But how did some teams towards the top of the draft pass on Jalen Carter, allowing him to fall right into Philadelphia’s lap? Teams like Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago may regret their draft day decisions.
San Fran is still playing polished, exciting football. Christian McCaffrey is funneling this offense through himself, allowing others to make big plays. They still field an elite defense as well. If the Niners can avoid the QB-injury plague they’ve dealt with in recent years, they’ll have a strong chance to return to the Super Bowl.
The Bad…
The New York Jets are in trouble, aren’t they? We’ve seen this Zach Wilson story before, and it doesn’t end well. After another disappointing performance, Robert Saleh doubled down on Wilson being the starter. Trevor Siemian was brought in, likely to be a suitable backup. Should he see game action, maybe he’ll provide a similar spark Mike White has in previous years. The defense and special teams units are still top notch for Gang Green, so they’ll go as far as Zach wilson can take them. To be more precise, how far they can take Zach Wilson.
It seems like the reign for the Tennessee Titans in the lowly AFC South may be over. They’ve looked…not very good through three weeks. They stole a game against the Chargers, but I’ll attribute that moreso to…well It’s the Chargers. They’ll find a new way to lose any game. DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t look like the superstar the Titans were hoping he would look like when they signed him. Jacksonville put their stamp on the division last year, while Indianapolis and Houston both have new quarterbacks, new head coaches, and new life. Tennessee failed to take advantage while the other teams squandered for a few years, and it looks likes it will be back of the line for Mike Vrabel and the Titans.
The Ugly…
It’s doesn’t get uglier than allowing ten touchdowns to get scored on you, does it? The Denver Broncos took one for the team, and put that theory to the test. The results: no, it doesn’t get any uglier. Even Miami’s backups were having a field day against stud cornerback Pat Surtain II. Sean Payton hedged his bets before the season, but things seemingly got worse in the Mile High City. In my humble opinion, it’s time for the Big Red Reset Button.
Another team that should press the Big Red Reset Button is the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields is not this bad, and that falls on the shoulders of the coaching staff. Plenty of QB needy teams would pay up for Fields. Alternatively, Chicago could get another huge haul for a top draft pick, as they’ll be squarely in the running for the top pick. Additionally, they also own the (currently) 0-3 Carolina Panthers pick. Some big name reinforcements could be coming to Chicago, but Bears fans will have to look ahead to the offseason before we even hit October.
Other Quick Thoughts
After two weeks of flirting with it, the Arizona Cardinals finally pulled off the upset. Projected to be the worst team in the league, the Cardinals have shown more fight than people anticipated. I reminded everyone that, yes, they still are a professional football team. They proved that this week with a decisive victory over the Dallas Cowboys after falling short against a couple other NFC East teams.
The Los Angeles Chargers won the battle of choking franchises, outlasting the Minnesota Vikings. The Chargers turned the ball over late after failing a fourth down attempt deep in their own territory, looking like they’d once again blow it in typical Charger fashion. Instead, we got Vintage Vikings failing to capitalize. It’s a victory for LA, but losing Mike Williams for the season was a loss. Staley may have only delayed the inevitable.
Week 4’s Thursday Night matchup should be a good one between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. These are the two teams in the NFC North seemingly poised to take this division in 2023, with Chicago and Minnesota already quite behind. This matchup closed the 2022 regular season, with the Lions storming into Lambeau Field and denying Aaron Rodgers a playoff berth in what ended up being his final season in Green Bay. The rest of this Packers’ roster hasn’t forgotten that game either, though. It’ll be a tough game, and I expect some knee caps to be bitten.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears will face off this week. I suspect the only person really watching this game will be USC’s Caleb Williams. Or people that like to stare at dumpster fires, train wrecks, and the sort.
Game Picks: Week 4 (Season: 30-18 / Last Week: 8-8)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Lions @ Packers
Falcons @ Jaguars
Dolphins @ Bills
Vikings @ Panthers
Rams @ Colts
Broncos @ Bears
Ravens @ Browns
Steelers @ Texans
Buccaneers @ Saints
Commanders @ Eagles
Bengals @ Titans
Raiders @ Chargers
Patriots @ Cowboys
Cardinals @ 49ers
Chiefs @ Jets
Seahawks @ Giants
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Miami Dolphins (3-0) 56 points
2. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) 55 points
3. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) 51 points
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) 42 points
5. Buffalo Bills (2-1) 32 points
6. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) 29 points
7. Cleveland Browns (2-1) 17 points
8. Detroit Lions (2-1) 15 points
9. Green Bay Packers (2-1) 14 points
10. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) 11 points
Also Receiving Votes: Seattle Seahawks 4 pts Indianapolis Colts 1 pt Pittsburgh Steelers 1 pt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Mandell: Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens
Corey Jason: Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions
Dylan Mehl: Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers