The Outsider Sports Football Column - October 4th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Chris Graythen / Getty Images
With the NFL regular season four weeks through, I thought it would be fun to hand out some Quarter Season Awards. These aren’t predictions to whom I think will walk away with these awards at NFL Honors early next year. Instead, it’s simply offering praise in a format we all think about this early on anyway. The awards race, especially the MVP and rookies of the year, are talked about as early as training camp. So with a quarter of the season in the books, (or as close as you can get with that 17th game throwing the easy math off a bit), here’s who I would present each major award to…
Quarter-Season Awards
Most Valuable Player: Christian McCaffrey, RB San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey was a force of nature during his time in Carolina. But since the midseason trade a year ago sent him to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, CMC has been other worldly. He is the top weapon for one of the league’s most prolific offenses. He’s as equally dominant in the running game as he is in the receiving game. Remember last season when he even threw for a touchdown? He’s the ultimate weapon, and a four touchdown performance against the plucky division rival Cardinals reinforced what we already know: Christian McCaffrey is as valuable to a team as they come, despite the recent downturn of the running back market.
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
How has Shanahan not walked away with this award yet? None of these awards should be celebrating previous years’ results, but Shanahan has had San Fran has an annual contender for the past several years, throwing out 2018 when they were decimated with injuries. Sitting at 4-0 in 2023, it’s clear the 49ers aren’t going anywhere this year, except back into the playoffs. One underrated point about Shanahan: despite losing a couple A-tier defensive coordinators who have moved on to bigger and brighter coaching gigs (Robert Saleh, DeMeco Ryans), Shanahan still has this defense playing lights out. Retaining impeccable consistency on the defense for an offensive genius is something else. Time to give Shanahan his flowers.
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, WR Minnesota Vikings
That’s right, after a quarterback walked away with both MVP and OPOY in 2022, I am giving neither of these awards to the position so far this year. Let’s face it, without Jefferson the Vikings would be borderline unwatchable. Throw in the fact that he is on pace to blow by 2,000 yards receiving on the season, and JJ has a strong case for some hardware in 2023. It just won’t be a Lombardi like he was probably hoping for. What else needs to be said about the game’s top receiver?
Defensive Player of the Year: TJ Watt, EDGE Pittsburgh Steelers
If the Vikings are unwatchable without Jefferson, where would Pittsburgh be without Watt? TJ earned this honor once before already, and notching a second award would push him into the upper echelon of all-time greats in NFL history. It’s not often you routinely win games because of a defensive player, but Watt does exactly that for the Steelers. He notched 6 sacks already, and was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September. Watt is the frontrunner for this award, and he has it in my eyes through four weeks.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: CJ Stroud, QB Houston Texans
Stroud has been awesome, hasn’t he? After a tough debut against an even tougher Ravens team, Stroud looked pretty good in a loss to the Colts. But then he orchestrated huge wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, all without throwing an interception. Stroud was a huge get for H-Town, especially after the Watson saga. We’ll see if Stroud keeps Houston relevant the rest of 2023, but they’re in the thick of it so far at 2-2.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Devon Witherspoon, CB Seattle Seahawks
Could it be anyone else after his monstrous performance in a Monday Night game against the Giants? Two sacks and a 97-yard pick six pushed Witherspoon to Rookie of the Year frontrunner. Seattle knows how to draft defensive backs, huh? What is most impressive is Witherspoon’s versatility. Much of that aforementioned game he was lined up in the slot, including where that game sealing interception came. He didn’t do much of that in college, but early signs point to another stud corner in the PAcific Northwest if continues on this trajectory.
Comeback Player of the Year: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Miami Dolphins
Some are throwing around “MVP” chants for Tua, and while those are certainly deserved through four games, I have Tua winning comeback player of the year. He missed a good chunk of 2022 dealing with concussion issues, and many said that Tua may be better off walking away from football, a la Andrew Luck. Thankfully, Tua is back and he’s better than ever. He was awesome when he played in 2022, the only problem was clearly playing hindered, leaving games early, and missing four games entirely - including a playoff game. Tua is orchestrating the league’s most explosive offense, and he should win this award.
Other Quick Thoughts
It’s another tough year in the Big Apple. The New York Jets and Giants are a combined 2-6 on the season, and 1-4 in primetime games, including three blowouts (all Giants). It was a year with increased expectations for both squads. With tough schedules remaining for each, it may be time yet again to look to the future.
The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both at a surprising 2-2, getting their rebuilds off to a much better start than many anticipated. Even in their respective losses, both teams showed off what they could be when firing on all cylinders. Both Stroud and Anthony Richardson look like young stars in the making, while DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen have jumpstarted their youth filled rosters. Add Jacksonville to the mix, and this AFC South may be one of the better divisions in the coming years.
Boy was I wrong about the Carolina Panthers. I had them poised for a big season after a strong end to 2022, and an aggressive offseason. Now sitting at 0-4 and pretty behind the rest of the NFC South, Carolina is without their first round pick because of the trade with Chicago to go acquire Bryce Young first overall. Sorry Panthers fans, you may have to wait until 2025. I will say however: in Frank Reich’s first year with Indianapolis he started 1-5 and ran the table to nab a wild card spot. I’m not saying history can repeat itself, but being in the NFC is a good first step.
The defense of the Dallas Cowboys is still elite. Next.
Word out from the Pittsburgh Steelers is that no change to offensive staff is anticipated. Mike Tomlin will have to rally the troops to keep his impressive streak of non-losing seasons running. Something is off with the Steelers offense. Is it the quarterback? Running game? Is it still the offensive line? Playcalling? All of the above? We’ve seen flashes of a more-than-competent offense being ran. Unfortunately, those glimpses have been few and far between.
Game Picks: Week 5 (Season: 41-23 / Last Week: 11-5)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Bears @ Commanders
Jaguars @ Bills
Texans @ Falcons
Panthers @ Lions
Titans @ Colts
Giants @ Dolphins
Saints @ Patriots
Ravens @ Steelers
Bengals @ Cardinals
Eagles @ Rams
Jets @ Broncos
Chiefs @ Vikings
Cowboys @ 49ers
Packers @ Raiders
Teams on Bye: Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0) 60 points / next: vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-0)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) 53 points / next: @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) 44 points/ next: @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
4. Buffalo Bills (3-1) 40 points / next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) (in London, England)
5. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) 37 points / next: @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
6. Miami Dolphins (3-1) 34 points / next: vs. New York Giants (1-3)
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) 23 points / next: @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
8. Detroit Lions (3-1) 20 points / next: vs. Carolina Panthers (0-4)
9. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) 9 points / next: BYE
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) 7 points / next: BYE
Also Receiving Votes: Cleveland Browns 2pts Houston Texans 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ben Mandell: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dylan Mehl: San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks