The Outsider Sports Football Column - October 11th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
(AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian) (Kevork Djansezian / Associated Press)
You know we’re into the NFL regular season when you take a look at the injury reports around the league. Stars Justin Jefferson, Anthony Richardson, and De’Von Achane will all be placed on injured reserve following injuries suffered in week 5. This follows Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, and JK Dobbins all being lost for the season. Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor just returned after missing the first month of the season, but this sport truly is a war of attrition. Sometimes the last team standing just happens to be the healthiest team. So who could be that last team standing?
This week, let’s look at the NFC. The “weaker” conference currently houses the two remaining undefeated teams in Philadelphia and San Francisco. The perception that this is the weaker conference compared to the AFC is the undercard: Chicago, Carolina, Arizona, etc. Following a conversation on this week’s episode of the Outsider Sports Football Podcast, I want to split the NFC into tiers based on where they stand now, and also taking into account how I project these teams for the remainder of the season. Come back to the column next week when I do the same exercise for the AFC.
NFC Hierarchy
Super Bowl Contenders: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers
I think these teams are in the same tier, but not the same level. San Francisco is dominating teams right now, firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is still figuring themselves out a bit on their 5-0 run. I believe these teams are destined to meet again in the NFC Championship game.
Deep Playoff Contenders: Detroit Lions
Yes, I have Detroit alone in this category for now. They could just as easily be 5-0 as well, only dropping a tough overtime loss to Seattle. What separates the Lions from the next tier to me is the fact we haven’t seen this team at full strength yet. Jameson Williams is just getting eased back into things as Amon-Ra St.Brown misses a game due to injury. Young players - especially Jahmyr Gibbs - are still getting worked in as well. Goff is playing well, and this offensive line is among the best in football. Detroit is for real.
Playoff Contenders, with some small things to figure out: Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks
The common theme amongst these teams? Strength of victory. Dallas’s three wins, though impressive, have been against the Giants, Jets, and Patriots. Tampa Bay knocked off the Vikings (who have come back to Earth after last season), Bears, and Saints. Seattle, while they do have that impressive win over Detroit, beat up on those same Giants and the winless Panthers. These teams all have a chance to make a statement in Week 6, playing the Chargers, Lions, and Bengals respectively. A loss could be as devastating as a win would be monumental.
Playoff Contenders, with some big things to figure out: Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints
These teams certainly still have time to get themselves right, but what is their ceiling? We’ve seen the Rams on both ends, winning the Super Bowl and going to another one, then winning only four games a season ago. Thus far, LA is making some noise in 2023, but seem outmatched when going against the likes of San Fran and Philly. Green Bay has had a rocky start after turning the keys over to Jordan Love. It’s been a youth movement all over the roster for the Pack, so a late season push after capturing some momentum may be their best chance. Atlanta and New Orleans have both had some good wins, and some ugly losses. About what we expected down in the NFC South. These are two teams to watch, just in case the Bucs begin to falter.
I expected better: Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Washington Commanders
Boy, did I miss on Carolina. I was all in following their upgrades this offseason, thinking they could grab hold of a wide open NFC South. Instead, they’ve free falled to 0-5 and don’t even own their first round pick. That pick currently is first overall, and is held by the one win Chicago Bears. Yikes. The Giants and Commanders had some success in 2022, but it’s been ugly this year. The Giants really took a step back, and its been impossible to avoid because of all of their primetime games. What’s up with that? We get to watch an expected massacre this Sunday night as they travel into Buffalo. The Commanders started hot at 2-0, but have now dropped some winnable games since then, including giving those Bears their first victory in a near calendar year. Riverboat Ron is firmly on the hot seat.
Look to next year: Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals
I liked what Chicago did in the offseason, but I also knew it wasn’t enough for a quick turnaround. There will be a new coach in the Windy City in 2024. Will there be a new quarterback as well? For Minnesota, I saw this coming a mile away. They had too many close, borderline lucky wins in 2022. That luck was bound to run out when the defense is this bad, and Big Kirko just isn’t as good as many want him to be. Now with Justin Jefferson about to miss at least the next four weeks, Minnesota will look to retool more so than rebuild. Arizona is hitting expectations, at least in my eyes. Everyone wrote them off, expecting to see the first 0-17 team. I knew they’d steal a couple wins, and after a feisty first couple weeks, ‘Zona stole one over Dallas. The Cardinals can likely snag a few more as the year goes on.
Other Quick Thoughts
Indianapolis Colts! Jonathan Taylor is back! But Anthony Richardson is on IR….
The Los Angeles Chargers already had a playoff game in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. Following a bye week, LA has another one against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Loser of this game will fall behind the other teams ahead of them in their respective conference.
Is it safe to say yet that the Denver Broncos won’t turn things around? Russell Wilson has looked better than last year, but that’s like going from a 1 to a 2 on a scale of 10. Sean Payton isn’t the savior many thought he might be.
The Pittsburgh Steelers currently sit atop the AFC North despite fielding an abysmal offense. TJ Watt should be in the MVP conversation.
Game Picks: Week 6 (Season: 49-29 / Last Week: 8-6)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Broncos @ Chiefs
Ravens @ Titans (in London, England)
Commanders @ Falcons
Vikings @ Bears
Colts @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Bengals
49ers @ Browns
Saints @ Texans
Panthers @ Dolphins
Patriots @ Raiders
Lions @ Buccaneers
Cardinals @ Rams
Eagles @ Jets
Giants @ Bills
Cowboys @ Chargers
Teams on BYE: Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-0) 60 points / next: @ Cleveland Browns (2-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) 54 points / next: @ New York Jets (2-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) 44 points / next: vs. Denver Broncos (1-4)
4. Miami Dolphins (4-1) 41 points / next: vs. Carolina Panthers (0-5)
5. Detroit Lions (4-1) 34 points / next: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
6. Buffalo Bills (3-2) 33 points / next: vs. New York Giants (1-4)
7. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) 21 points / next: @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
T8. Baltimore Ravens (3-2) 11 points / next: @ Tennessee Titans (2-3) (in London, England)
T8. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) 11 points / next: @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) 9 points / next: vs. Detroit Lions (4-1)
Also Receiving Votes: Jacksonville Jaguars 8pts Los Angeles Chargers 2pts Pittsburgh Steelers 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ben Mandell: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers
Dylan Mehl: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks