The Outsider Sports Football Column - October 18th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Scott Galvin / USA TODAY Sports
Big underdogs had some big performances in Week 6 of NFL action. The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets made sure no team would go undefeated in 2023 by knocking off the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. While they didn’t notch a victory, the New York Giants and Denver Broncos fared much better than anyone would have predicted on the road against tough opponents. Last week, I set the NFC into tiers. I’ll be doing that same exercise for the AFC down below this week. It is a much tougher task this week, as the AFC is not only much more competitive, but even the projected lower tier teams (ahem, Houston), have showed promise thus far. Without further delay, let’s get into it!
AFC Hierarchy
Super Bowl Contenders: Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs
The Miami Dolphins have shown what we knew last year: this team is explosive when Tua plays. The big difference this season? Tua hasn’t missed any time, and has shown no lingering signs from those concussions in 2022. Fantasy sleeper DeVon Achane will hopefully be back this season, adding even more speed to this offense somehow. Oh, and All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey has yet to make his season debut as well. For Kansas City, it’s until they show us otherwise. Someone needs to step up alongside Travis Kelce though. Patrick Mahomes can elevate talent around him, as all elite quarterbacks should be able to, but those pass catchers still need to catch passes. The Chiefs are rolling right now en route to a possible successful title defense.
Deep Playoff Contenders: Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills
All three of these teams have shown they can hang around into January. But can they go farther? Each has at least one impressive win so far this season, but they each have their question marks. For Jacksonville, it’s inexperience. They just reached the divisional round a year ago, and have a Super Bowl winning head coach in Doug Pederson, so this isn’t the concern it was a year ago. For Baltimore and Buffalo, they share concerns. Simply put, it’s health. Both squads are banged up already, and it won’t get better as the season rolls on.
Playoff Contenders, with some small things to figure out: Cincinnati Bengals
Don’t look now, but the Bengals are starting to get on a roll, but it still isn’t what we’ve come to expect from Cincy. As Joe Burrow gets further out from his calf injury, though, we’ll see the Cincy of old. They’ll still be a force to be reckoned with come winter.
Playoff Contenders, with some big things to figure out: New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers
This is where the AFC stakes its claim as the superior conference. To use a wrestling term, the AFC has the stronger mid-card. This is a collection of teams that can maybe sneak one out against the teams listed above, but will certainly beat each other up for our entertainment. Let’s get into this tier in rapid fire fashion:
The Jets will go as far as they want, so long as Zach Wilson continues to play as mistake free as possible. The offensive line is likely a bigger question mark at this point
Houston has surprised a lot of people, especially with the youth movement going on there. Will they be the “comes out of nowhere” team in 2023?
Indy just lost their promising rookie QB Anthony Richardson to a season ending shoulder surgery, so Gardner Minshew will be at the helm the rest of the way. This offensive line has found its flow again after a disappointing 2022, and the defense is still pretty good. Right now, I view them the same way as the Jets. The Jets have the better defense, but Indy has the better offense.
Cleveland just needs to figure out what is going on with Deshaun Watson. This defense is legit, allowing the fewest amount of yards through five games in NFL history. I’ll throw them in with New York and Indy as well. One side of the ball is going to pick up the slack while the other phases limit mistakes.
Notice a trend, yet? Pittsburgh’s defense seems like it scores more than the offense at this point. Forget Defensive Player of the Year, could TJ Watt be making a case for MVP honors?
The Chargers are the Chargers, sadly. There is still too much talent to leave them out of this category, but for what it’s worth: there’s a reason I have them listed last here.
I expected better: New England Patriots
I did pick New England to finish last in the AFC East, but I didn’t think it would be this bad. This team is unwatchable, and I didn’t think I’d see the day I would be saying this about a Bill Belichick led team. The Patriots are officially under Caleb Williams Watch. Obviously, New England fits in the below category as well. I didn’t think The Empire would crumble like this.
Look to next year: Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans
All three of these rosters are sub-par, have question marks at key positions, and cannot compete with teams ahead of them in their own divisions, let alone the rest of the conference. The worst part? Next year may not be much better. These teams are pretty far off from competing right now.
Other Quick Thoughts
The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are going to be just fine. They’re still the best teams in the NFC, with the only other rising contender right now being the Detroit Lions. Good teams are afforded a stumble every now and then. Sometimes it is a blessing in disguise. Winning covers up a lot of problems, so some self reflection will only make the Niners and Eagles better because of it.
The NFC mid-card is as murky as the AFC, but with much less pop. There is no defense in here like the Jets, Browns, or Steelers to be found here. Can the Seattle Seahawks get back on track? Will the Los Angeles Rams steal that momentum? The NFC South looks poised again to send one team as the fourth seed, and the Carolina Panthers are the only team out of that race right now.
Game Picks: Week 7 (Season: 58-35 / Last Week: 9-6)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Jaguars @ Saints
Lions @ Ravens
Raiders @ Bears
Bills @ Patriots
Commanders @ Giants
Browns @ Colts
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Steelers @ Rams
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Packers @ Broncos
Chargers @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Eagles
49ers @ Vikings
Teams on BYE: Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) 58 points / Last Week: 1 / next: @ Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) 50 points / Last Week: 3 / next: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-3)
3. Miami Dolphins (5-1) 48 points / Last Week: 4 / next: @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) 47 / Last Week: 2 / next: vs. Miami Dolphins (5-1)
5. Detroit Lions (5-1) 37 points / Last Week: 5 / next: @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2) 23 points / Last Week: 6 / next: @ New England Patriots (1-5)
7. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) 21 points / Last Week: 8 / next: vs. Detroit Lions (5-1)
8. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) 19 points / Last Week: 7 / next: BYE
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) 17 points / Last Week: R/V / next: @ New Orleans Saints (3-3)
10. Cleveland Browns (3-2) 10 points / Last Week: N/A / next: @ Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
Also Receiving Votes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2pts New York Jets 1pt Seattle Seahawks 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns
Ben Mandell: San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets
Dylan Mehl: Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys
John Pauline: Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars