The Outsider Sports Football Column - January 3rd, 2024
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit: AP Photo / Adam Hunger
The time has finally arrived for complicated playoff scenarios to take center stage. Saturday games will impact Sunday, and teams may know their fate ahead of time. Pittsburgh has plenty to play for against Baltimore, who has the AFC’s top seed locked up. Houston and Indianapolis will face off in a matchup I thought could have been the regular season finale. It’s a win-and-you’re-in game between two teams projected to have only won a handful of games in 2023. Indy and Houston instead both jumpstarted their rebuilds, currently sitting at 9-7 a piece. Jacksonville also sits at 9-7, treading water as opposed to how they stormed into the playoffs a year ago. But is there a hotter team in the NFL right now than the Los Angeles Rams? Sean McVay’s squad is that team getting hot - and healthy - at the right time. The threat is real for the Rams to go steal a playoff game or two (or three!) on the road.
Meanwhile, every other team in the playoff race has huge question marks, which I have covered extensively in this column the past few weeks. Which version of the Chiefs and Bills will we see in this year’s playoffs? Will we see the Bills at all? With a loss to Miami, among other things, Buffalo could be sitting at home for this postseason. The Dolphins are succumbing to the injury bug at the worst possible time. Does Joe Flacco have another magical playoff run in him?
Over in the NFC, San Francisco’s breakdown against the Ravens on Christmas Day is concerning, but that’s about where the concerns end. As long as they stay healthy, the 49ers will at least be in the NFC Conference championship game again. The struggle spotlight is solely on the Philadelphia Eagles. They rolled through the season to the tune of a 10-1 record, but have since dropped four of their last five. And in that span, it has been downright ugly:
Blown out by the 49ers at home
Dominated by Dallas on the road
Choked against Seattle in the fourth quarter
Almost blew a lead against the Giants
Upset by the Cardinals at home
This is the absolute worst state a team can be in as they enter the postseason, and it doesn’t stop there. Star receiver DeVonta Smith was seen with a boot and crutches following that loss to the Cardinals. With no hope at the one seed and a bye, the Eagles may rest their starters for most or all of their week 18 contest against the Giants. This fall from grace for the Eagles is ominously reminiscent to the fellow Pennsylvanian resident Steelers’ skid in 2020. They started 11-0, finished 12-4, and got bounced in the opening round to rival Cleveland. Could Tampa Bay upset Philly in the opening round? It remains to be seen, but Philly feels like the most vulnerable of the upper tiered teams, especially because they’ll be on the road in the postseason.
Other Quick Thoughts
I’ll be rooting heavily for the Detroit Lions in this year’s playoffs. Not just for the decades of losing and getting the short end of the stick, but for the latest entry in that list of unfortunate events. To me, Detroit got absolutely shafted by the latest evidence that their is a referee epidemic in the NFL. TAYLOR DECKER REPORTED! That referee crew has rightfully been pulled from the crews eligible to officiate in the playoffs. I do hope more accountability is taken on the NFL’s behalf for these officials.
Where do you stand on the rest vs play philosophy when it comes to the end of the regular season? It’s a debate many coaches will face this upcoming weeks, with playoff spots and even exact seeding already set. We won’t see many stars from the Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, and Browns this week with those teams all locked into a specific seed already. But Dallas and Philadelphia can both still win their division, so we’ll likely see many of their top players available. If I was a coach facing this dilemma, I would approach it as I would a preseason game: starters play a few drives, maybe a quarter. If I have a top seed locked up with that first round bye, I may go with starters until halftime.
Game Picks: Week 18 (Season: 157-99 / Last Week: 8-8)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Steelers @ Ravens
Texans @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Browns @ Bengals
Vikings @ Lions
Jets @ Patriots
Falcons @ Saints
Jaguars @ Titans
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Bears @ Packers
Chiefs @ Chargers
Broncos @ Raiders
Eagles @ Giants
Rams @ 49ers
Cowboys @ Commanders
Bills @ Dolphins
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3) 60 points / Previous Rank: 2 / next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) 54 points / Previous Rank: 1 / next: vs. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
T3. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) 37 points / Previous Rank: 4 / next: @ Washington Commanders (4-12)
T3. Detroit Lions (11-5) 37 points / Previous Rank: 7 / next: vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
T3. Miami Dolphins (11-5) 37 points / Previous Rank: 3 / next: vs. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
6. Buffalo Bills (10-6) 28 points / Previous Rank: 9 / next: @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)
7. Cleveland Browns (11-5) 23 points / Previous Rank: 8 / next: @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) 21 points / Previous Rank: T5 / next: @ New York Giants (5-11)
9. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) 20 points / Previous Rank: T5 / next: @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
10. Los Angeles Rams (9-7) 8 points / Previous Rank: Received Votes / next: @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Also Receiving Votes: Jacksonville Jaguars 3pts Indianapolis Colts 2pts
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs
Ben Mandell: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams
Corey Jason: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis Colts
Dylan Mehl: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams
John Pauline: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Tulanowski: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams