The Outsider Sports Football Column - December 20th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Mike Carlson / Getty Images
While everyone else in the AFC plays musical chairs, the Baltimore Ravens have staked their claim as the best team in the conference. Even further, they be the best team in the NFL behind only the San Francisco 49ers. Lamar Jackson has his team in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the AFC, but he faces some tough matchups down the stretch. This upcoming week, they face off against those aforementioned 49ers. A game against the Miami Dolphins follows, which will have huge ramifications for that first round bye. Closing the regular season is a game against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has taken a turn for the worst in the past month, but I expect Mike Tomlin to still bring his team ready versus a hated rival. My concern level for Baltimore is pretty low despite the tough three games remaining, as I believe strongly in John Harbaugh’s squad. Let’s see where my concern/content levels sit for some other teams thick in the playoff hunt.
Miami Dolphins - Content
Miami routed the Jets this past week, despite missing several key players. I wont buy into the narrative that Miami can’t beat a good team. Come playoff time, these Dolphins should matchup well against some of the wild card contenders. With some favorable results, Miami may still earn that first round bye.
Kansas City Chiefs - Concerned
Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the game right now, but his receiving core is very concerning. Rashee Rice is coming into form, but Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are actively hurting this team. Travis Kelce has been disappearing at times, which absolutely cannot happen if this offense wants to continue to work.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Concerned
Trevor Lawrence has taken a beaten in the past month. After walking off a high ankle sprain, Lawrence now finds himself in the concussion protocol. If Jacksonville wants to hang onto their AFC South lead, they’ll need their franchise signal caller. The worst part? Even if Lawrence plays, they may still lose their grip to Indianapolis or Houston.
Cleveland Browns - Content
Despite losing Nick Chubb at the start of the season, and currently fielding Joe Flacco at quarterback in 2023, the Browns are 9-5 and have their head above the rest of the pack in the AFC wild card race. Just keep on keeping on, Cleveland.
Cincinnati Bengals - Content
We were ready to stick the proverbial fork in the Bengals following Joe Burrow’s season ending injury and a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers just a few weeks ago. How quickly things can change, as it is now the Bengals in the playoff picture, and the Steelers on a three game losing skid, and falling fast. Jake Browning may just be our Outsider of the Year for not only keeping the the Bengals afloat, but for bringing them back to shore.
Indianapolis Colts - Content
With a backup quarterback and without star playmaker Jonathan Taylor for much of the year, Shane Steichen still has the Colts in a “control your own destiny” scenario to reach the playoffs, which is much farther than anyone could have imagined for the Colts.
Houston Texans - Content
While not currently sitting in the playoffs, Houston is in a similar boat as their rivals. Who would have thought these Texans would have eight wins all season, let alone with three weeks to go? The week 18 matchup between Houston and Indy is an early contender to close the regular season.
Buffalo Bills - Concerned
With Denver and Pittsburgh losing, Buffalo leaps ahead of some other wild card hopefuls. The problem? Buffalo could win out, and still not make the playoffs. They also do not have a tiebreaker over the Bengals, which could prove troubling should those two teams finish with the same record. Even now, Buffalo sits at the end of the line in a conglomerate of 8-6 teams.
Dallas Cowboys - It Depends
If Dallas gets to play a home playoff game, I’m content. If they have to go on the road, I’m concerned. enough said. This is a far different team depending on where they play.
Philadelphia Eagles - Concerned
This team is still really good, but Seattle was supposed to be a get-right game for Philly following huge losses to the 49ers and Cowboys. Instead, it was another disappointing outing for the Eagles. Can Jalen Hurts and company turn it around? Two matchups against the Giants and a game versus Arizona will hopefully do it.
Detroit Lions - Content
Despite dropping some winnable games, the Lions are still rolling, and primed to host - and maybe even win! - a playoff game. You have to love where Dan Campbell has this young roster.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers & New Orleans Saints - Concerned
Someone has to win this division, and it seems this is now a two horse race down the stretch. My concern is that we’ll have to watch one of these teams host Philly or Dallas, and witness the results on national television.
Los Angeles Rams - Content
Sean McVay and the Rams have stormed back into the playoff picture, much like the Bengals back over in the AFC. Stafford and this offense could pose a problem for the higher up seeds in the NFC.
Green Bay Packers - Concerned
Like Detroit, Green Bay lost some winnable games, halting the momentum they captured following wins versus those very Lions, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, the Packers have an uphill battle to get to the postseason.
Minnesota Vikings - Concerned
Sensing a theme with these NFC North teams? Compared to the Packers, Minnesota at least finds themselves still in the playoff picture as of right now. I still don’t feel any better about them given their quarterback situation.
Seattle Seahawks - Content
A week ago, I would have been concerned, and ruled Seattle dead in the water. Instead, they are alive following a huge upset win against the Philadelphia Eagles. At 7-7, the Seattle Seahawks can repeat their 2022 campaign and be a surprise playoff entrant.
Other Quick Thoughts
How did the Las Vegas Raiders go from losing 3-0 on Sunday to winning 63-21 on Thursday? The Raiders have felt like a mess for more than a few years now, but I don’t even know where to begin to sort this team out facing a rebuild.
On the other end of that game, the Los Angeles Chargers have finally fired Brandon Staley, officially kicking off their rebuild. (reload?)
I also just want to give major props to Cincinnati Bengals star receiver tee Higgins for that incredible catch and score. He’ll get a massive payday from some team, and deservedly so.
Game Picks: Week 16 (Season: 140-84 / Last Week: 11-5)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Saints @ Rams
Bengals @ Steelers
Bills @ Chargers
Packers @ Panthers
Browns @ Texans
Colts @ Falcons
Lions @ Vikings
Commanders @ Jets
Seahawks @ Titans
Jaguars @ Buccaneers
Cardinals @ Bears
Cowboys @ Dolphins
Patriots @ Broncos
Raiders @ Chiefs
Giants @ Eagles
Ravens @ 49ers
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: vs. Baltimore Ravens (11-3)
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) 54 points / Last Week: 2 / next: @ San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
3. Miami Dolphins (10-4) 40 points / Last Week: 5 / next: vs. Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
4. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) 39 points / Last Week: 3 / next: @ Miami Dolphins (10-4)
T5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) 35 points / Last Week: 6 / next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)
T5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) 35 points / Last Week: 4 / next: vs. New York Giants (5-9)
7. Detroit Lions (10-4) 24 points / Last Week: 7 / next: @ Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
8. Cleveland Browns (9-5) 15 points / Last Week: 8 / next: @ Houston Texans (8-6)
9. Buffalo Bills (8-6) 14 points / Last Week: R/V / next: @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) 6 points / Last Week: 9 / next: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Also Receiving Votes: Cincinnati Bengals 5pts Indianapolis Colts 2pts Los Angeles Rams 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts
Ben Mandell: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams
Dylan Mehl: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals