The Outsider Sports Football Column - December 13th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Dustin Satloff / Getty Images AFP
Another week down in the NFL, and the playoff picture in each the AFC and the NFC have not gained any clarity. The AFC wild card is as murky as it has been yet, with SIX teams sitting at 7-6. Meanwhile, the New York Giants have clawed their way into playoff positioning, now one game out of a wild card spot themselves. The final four weeks of the regular season should be as exciting as any other season in recent memory, even with the abundance of backup quarterbacks in the starting lineups across the league. Last week I gave my quick opinion on the current standing of the each AFC team, and you can revisit that here. This week we’ll tackle the NFC.
NFC Quick Thoughts
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Seems I overreacted to the departure of Kellen Moore in the offseason, as the Dallas offense is as good as ever with Dak Prescott, while the Chargers continue to disappoint. Dak is a legit MVP candidate this year, and this is Dallas’ best chance at a deep playoff run since I’ve been alive.
Philadelphia Eagles - It has been a tough couple of weeks for the Eagles, but the quality of opponents has never been higher. A Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs in their house, followed by an overtime thriller against Buffalo off a short week was bound to take its toll. Then a physical matchup with San Francisco resulted in Philly’s luck running out. A road trip to Dallas led to a second blowout, but Philly has too much talent to pronounce them dead a month out from the playoffs.
New York Giants - Tommy DeVito, aka “The Passing Paison”, has been a revelation for Brian Daboll’s squad, who now find themselves one game out of a wild card spot. Is DeVito this year’s Brock Purdy? That remains to be seen, but DeVito has thrown his name in contention to be the Giants’ starter in 2024.
Washington Commanders - The one positive to come out of Washington this year has to be that Sam Howell’s excellent performance against Dallas in the final regular season game of 2022 was not a fluke. The dude can play ball, and should factor in the latest rebuild for Washington. Step One: get him a coach to properly continue his development.
NFC North
Detroit Lions - Detroit is having their best season in years, and will likely get to host a playoff game in January. There are still concerns with this squad, but I’ll attribute that to growing pains considering how much they’re relying on young players.
Minnesota Vikings - Just as Justin Jefferson returns from a nasty hamstring injury, he takes a rough shot to the ribs that knocks him out again. If the Vikings want to salvage this season, they’ll need the all-star pass catcher to help Nick Mullins, who takes over for Josh Dobbs.
Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love has shown enough, especially with such a young roster, to keep his job as Aaron Rodgers’ successor. Green Bay still has a shot for the playoffs, but the future his brighter than the present
Chicago Bears - Justin Fields has been very good the past few weeks, seemingly as an audition tape. I still think Fields will get traded and a new coach brought in, but much of this roster should carry over to 2024. Trust the process!
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Someone has to win this division, and I’ll take Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans to host Philly or Dallas over anyone else in this forsaken division.
Atlanta Falcons - just rely on Bijan Robinson for a few more weeks, that’s all myself and the fantasy community can ask.
New Orleans Saints - Derek Carr should cede his job to Jameis Winston, and the Saints might steal this division.
Carolina Panthers - I just want to apologize to all Panthers fans out there. I’d say it can only go up from here, but with no premium draft capital, 2024 could be just as rough as 2023.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers - Again, I’d like to apologize to all Panthers fans out there, because Christian McCaffrey is as good as ever, and should be an MVP candidate. Deebo Samuel and the rest of the Burgundy and Gold should rush to the number one seed and the first round bye.
Los Angeles Rams - The Rams resurgence has been fun to watch, and McVay’s group can still get to the playoffs. More intriguing: the Rams currently hold their own first round pick in the 2024 draft, which would be their first selection in the opening round since…Jared Goff in 2016!
Seattle Seahawks - The Tale of Two Seasons, huh? After being one of the biggest surprises of 2022, Seattle is one of the biggest disappointments of 2023. They’re on a four game losing streak, and the defense has been abysmal. Next up: the Eagles, on a losing streak of their own looking to right their ship. The playoffs for Seattle starts right now.
Arizona Cardinals - Thought to be the first 0-17 team, I reminded everyone in the beginning of the season that the Cardinals are still a professional football team. They have those surprise wins over Dallas and Pittsburgh this year, and will try to bounce back in 2024. Will Kyler Murray be in Arizona, though?
Game Picks: Week 15 (Season: 129-79 / Last Week: 9-6)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Chargers @ Raiders
Vikings @ Bengals
Steelers @ Colts
Broncos @ Lions
Falcons @ Panthers
Bears @ Browns
Buccaneers @ Packers
Jets @ Dolphins
Giants @ Saints
Texans @ Titans
Chiefs @ Patriots
49ers @ Cardinals
Commanders @ Rams
Cowboys @ Bills
Ravens @ Jaguars
Eagles @ Seahawks
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: @ Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) 52 points / Last Week: 3 / next: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-3) 48 points / Last Week: 4 / next: @ Buffalo Bills (7-6)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) 43 points / Last Week: 2 / next: @ Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
5. Miami Dolphins (9-4) 35 points / Last Week: 5 / next: vs. New York Jets (5-8)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) 31 points / Last Week: 6 / next: @ New England Patriots (3-10)
7. Detroit Lions (9-4) 23 points / Last Week: 7 / next: vs. Denver Broncos (7-6)
8. Cleveland Browns (8-5) 18 points / Last Week: N/A / next: vs. Chicago Bears (5-8)
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) 11 points / Last Week: 8 / next: vs. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) 4 points / Last Week: N/A / next: vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
Also Receiving Votes: Buffalo Bills 3pts Denver Broncos 2pts Indianapolis Colts 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ben Mandell: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts
Dylan Mehl: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills
John Pauline: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars