The Outsider Sports Football Column - December 6th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Bill Streicher / USA TODAY Sports
Each week of the NFL now brings new outcomes, new perspectives, and new controversies. Deebo Samuel (pictured above) said “it wouldn’t be close” had Qb Brock Purdy not gotten injured in the NFC Championship game a year ago. Well, Purdy was healthy for San Fran’s visit to Philadelphia, and remained that way for the duration of the game. The result? A 42-19 blowout win for the Niners, quite the outcome to backing up Samuel’s claims. It puts the NFC playoff picture into a new perspective. After flirting with disaster in previous weeks, Philly finally fell. Another massive matchup comes this week for the Eagles, traveling to Dallas to take on the 9-3 Cowboys. Dak Prescott has his team in prime position to leapfrog the Eagles for at least the division crown in the NFC East, and possibly homefield advantage in the playoffs.
Like there is every week nowadays, there were even more officiating controversies - if you could believe it. There were some egregious calls across the leagues this week, ut maybe none more than in the Chiefs-Packers game on Sunday Night. As QB Patrick Mahomes scrambled, he was whacked out of bounds. Note: he went out of bounds because of the hit, the hit did not occur out of bounds. The officials didn’t see it that way, allowing a potential Chiefs drive to continue. That wasn’t the only questionable call on that drive, but certainly the worst in my eyes. I don’t believe it is an understatement to say that this is the worst year of officiating since the 2012 replacement referee debacle.
With so much going around the NFL, I’m going to give a quick thought on all 32 teams.. Where do I think each stands in the playoff hunt? What is working well for some of these teams? Let’s take a look at the AFC this week. Check back next week for a quick snap look at each team in the NFC.
AFC Quick Thoughts
AFC East
Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins currently sit as the AFC’s top seed, but they also have a tough schedule remaining. Following a matchup with the Titans and Jets, they face the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills to close the regular season. Miami has struggled against tough opponents this year. Let’s see how they fare during this three game stretch.
Buffalo Bills - Will Buffalo crawl out of their self-imposed hole and back into the playoffs? It’s more likely than it was a week ago, with Cleveland and Pittsburgh having lost in week 13, while also dealing with quarterback injuries. First stop: Kansas City.
New York Jets - Will Robert Saleh make it to 2024 in East Rutherford? What about Aaron Rodgers and his merry band of friends? What will happen to Zach Wilson? It has unfortunately become time to ask questions about the future for this Jets squad, rather than competing for the playoffs.
New England Patriots - The only thing I can think about regarding the Patriots is - how much of a rebuild will they go through? I expect Belichick to move on, one way or another. Will Bill O’Brian slide in as the ne head honcho? Or perhaps the familiar Josh McDaniels? I hope to see Robert Kraft go in a very different direction, and get some fresh faces in the building. Let’s get some distance from “The Patriot Way” a bit, and close the book on this chapter for good.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - I just need to see the Ravens stay healthy. The loss of Mark Andrews hurts, but the Ravens have navigated worse. Let’s just hope it doesn’t actually get worse.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Further adjustments to this offense are on the horizon. Kenny Pickett just doesn’t seem like the guy, even after the firing of much maligned offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Now with his injury, Pickett is unable to prove he is the guy. I would be in the quarterback market this offseason if I were Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin.
Cleveland Browns - The Deshaun Watson trade has been an unmitigated disaster thus far, if for no other reason than Watson has barely played through his two years with the Browns. After serving his suspension in 2022, Watson used the rest of that season to play the rest off. Now in 2023, Watson has dealt with injuries’a’plenty, including a shoulder injury that has him on the shelf. Maybe they should have kept Baker Mayfield, and used the draft assets and salary cap to further bolster this roster elsewhere.
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow will be back next year, Hopefully a decent draft pick will be spent on an offensive line prospect to try to keep Burrow upright next year.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars - After finishing last season as the hottest team in the NFL, Jacksonville picked up right where they left off. But now The Prince Trevor Lawrence could miss serious time. Might Jacksonville let the division slip away to Indianapolis or Houston just as Tennessee let it slip to these Jaguars a year ago?
Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans - I’m combing these together because they have both exceeded expectations, and are now playing with house money. Indy and Houston are both missing key players, yet still finding ways to win thanks to impressive first year head coaches Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans, respectively. Another offseason to continue to build these schemes and rosters out should highly raise expectations for these squads in 2024.
Tennessee Titans - It’s time for a rebuild. Mike Vrabel might likely stay, but stars AJ Brown and Kevin Byard have both been traded (both to Philly ironically), while Derrick Henry is trying to outrun Father Time. The Titans were marked as a weak AFC 1 seed in 2021. They backed that up with as bad of a stretch as you can close a season with in 2022. Now in 2023, they’re tied for the second worst record in the conference.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have had their offensive struggles, due in large part to this receiving core. Rookie Rashee Rice seems like a=he could develop into Mahomes’ next favorite target, but he’s not quite there yet. They didn’t feel the loss of Tyreek Hill en route to a Super Bowl title last year, but the Chiefs and Andy Reid are feeling it now.
Denver Broncos - Its been quite the turnaround for Denver since getting blown out 70-20 in Miami earlier this season. It was a tough loss to a plucky Texans team this week, but Denver can still find their way into a wild card spot by regaining their momentum, and with a bit of help.
Las Vegas Raiders - It’s rehearsal time for the Raiders. Can Antonio Pierce capture the head coaching job beyond an interim basis? Will Aiden O’Connell remain QB1? Im most interested to see if Davante Adams will remain a Raider.
Los Angeles Chargers - My opinion is that Kellen Moore should be the interim head coach right now, with Staley dismissed. Instead, Staley continues to operate as a head coach in this league. Should we have a discussion about Justin Herbert yet? For as highly regarded as he is, it feels like he should be playing much better.
Game Picks: Week 14 (Season: 120-73 / Last Week: 10-3)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Patriots @ Steelers
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Rams @ Ravens
Lions @ Bears
Colts @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Browns
Panthers @ Saints
Texans @ Jets
Vikings @ Raiders
Seahawks @ 49ers
Bills @ Chiefs
Broncos @ Chargers
Eagles @ Cowboys
Titans @ Dolphins
Packers @ Giants
Teams on BYE: Cardinals, Commanders
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (9-3) 59 points / Last Week: 4 / next: vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-6)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) 50 points / Last Week: 1 / next: @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) 49 points / Last Week: 3 / next: vs. Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
4. Dallas Cowboys (9-3) 38 points / Last Week: T5 / next: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
5. Miami Dolphins (9-3) 37 points / Last Week: T5 / next: vs. Tennessee Titans (4-8)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) 33 points / Last Week: 2 / next: vs. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
7. Detroit Lions (9-3) 28 points / Last Week: 8 / next: @ Chicago Bears (4-8)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) 17 points / Last Week: 7 / next: @ Cleveland Browns (7-5)
9. Houston Texans (7-5) 10 points / Last Week: 9 / next: @ New York Jets (4-8)
T10. Green Bay Packers (6-6) 3 points / Last Week: N/A / next: @ New York Giants (4-8)
T10. Indianapolis Colts (7-5) 3 points / Last Week: N/A / next: @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)
Also Receiving Votes: Los Angeles Rams 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans
Ben Mandell: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers
Corey Jason: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams
Dylan Mehl: San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers
John Pauline: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Tulanowski: San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers