The Outsider Sports Football Column - November 29th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Image credit to ESPN
The NFL head coaching carousel is starting to take shape. The Carolina Panthers dismissed Frank Reich this past week, the final nail in the coffin for the Panthers in 2023. This was a team I fell in love with following their offseason, partly due to the coaching staff. Where did it all go wrong? Well, it is believed Reich wanted to draft CJ Stroud over Bryce Young. Following years of a quarterback carousel in Indianapolis, Reich was again (allegedly) denied the rookie quarterback of his choice. Now I still believed in Bryce Young - and still do - but he has been an utter disappointment in 2023. The questions for the Panthers are this: who will be their next head coach? Will management give the patience and breathing room to a new head coach to execute a rebuild? Will players like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn be around for the culmination of that rebuild? With no first round pick in the 2024 draft, Carolina’s prospective rebuild will likely be off to a rocky start, barring any further trades. So let’s start with that first question, the search for the next head coach. Context plays a big part, and there will assuredly be more sought after coaching gigs in this year’s carousel. Let’s take a stroll around the league and see what other coaching jobs may open up about a month ahead of Black Monday.
Jobs Are Safe
Mike McDaniel (MIA), John Harbaugh (BAL), Mike Tomlin (PIT), Doug Pederson (JAX), DeMeco Ryans (HOU), Shane Steichen (IND), Andy Reid (KC), Sean Payton (DEN), Nick Sirianni (PHI), Mike McCarthy (DAL), Brian Daboll (NYG), Dan Campbell (DET), Matt LaFleur (GB), Kyle Shanahan (SF), Sean McVay (LAR), Jonathan Gannon (AZ), Pete Carroll (SEA)
Seventeen of the thirty-two teams should end up retaining their head coaches from 2023 to 2024, over half of the league. Likely it will be more, but these are the coaches I believe have no chance of being fired. Some because of their stable franchises (Chiefs, Steelers, Packers, Ravens, Seahawks), others because they have shown tremendous potential and growth in a short coaching tenure thus far (Lions, Texans, Colts), while others are just plain successful (Eagles, 49ers). Gannon is Arizona I don’t think will receive the Steve Wilks treatment and get fired after one season. He’ll be able to see through the rebuild. Daboll shouldn’t become a victim of the New York media. The two names to keep an eye on? McVay and Carroll. Not because there is a chance of them being fired, but because they may decide to walk away. I don’t believe either are ready to walk away, but Pete Carroll isn’t getting any younger. Meanwhile, Sean McVay has been surrounded by speculation of him stepping away from coaching to become a broadcaster/commentator for Amazon.
The Seat is a Little Warm
Sean McDermott (BUF), Robert Saleh (NYJ), Kevin Stefanski (CLE), Mike Vrabel (TEN), Kevin O’Connell (MIN)
These are coaches that should they be fired, I would be surprised. However, there are arguments against them. The Bills have slipped this year, and Ken Dorsey became the fall guy. Was he the first domino to fall? Questions are mounting against McDermott to remain the head coach in Buffalo after 2023. Should they miss the playoffs entirely, I could see a change being made. Unlike Daboll, Saleh could become a victim of the New York mass media. His allegiance to Zach Wilson, while endearing, is confusing. Wilson showed just a bit of growth earlier in the season, but has since been benched for Tim Boyle who hasn’t fared much better. The quarterback position has been the achilles heel for the Jets, and it could lead to Saleh’s downfall. Likewise, Stefanski in Cleveland would be a surprising firing, but would anyone be surprised to see Cleveland make a move like that? O’Connell in Minnesota has had ups and downs in his short tenure, and I believe he’ll get a third year. But following the playoff dud in 2022 and the “back to Earth” campaign of 2023, the Vikings need a personnel jumpstart to get back to contending. The big name to watch in this group is Mike Vrabel with the Titans. The roster is in relative shambles, and Vrabel has failed to capitalize on a weak division in recent years. Now, the Jags are among the best in the AFC and the Texans and Colts have bright futures with new coaches themselves and young rosters. The Titans will need to find their own franchise quarterback, retool the entire roster, and likely find a new head coach to spearhead the rebuild.
Don’t Be Surprised
Matt Eberflus (CHI), Todd Bowles (TB), Arthur Smith (ATL), Dennis Allen (NO), Zac Taylor (CIN)
Eberflus is doing his best to keep his job, finally showing some growth at the end of 2023. Should Chicago rattle off a few more wins to finish in the 6-7 range, I could see Flus getting a crack at coaching Caleb Williams or Drake Maye instead of Justin Fields in 2024. The entire NFC South should be fielding new head coaches in 2024. The Panthers have already moved on from Reich, and Smith, Allen, and Bowles should also be seeking employment. Whoever ends up hiring the best head coach will win this division in 2024 - hopefully with a winning record. The name I think many would be surprised is Zac Taylor in Cincinnati. What is his track record without Joe Burrow vs with the franchise quarterback? Taylor is an abysmal 4-28-1 without Burrow playing quarterback. It is clear that it is Burrow, not Zac Taylor, driving the success of the Bengals. A new head coach, a roster reset, and Joe Burrow coming back from injury should get the Bengals back in the fold in 2024.
Expected Job Openings
Brandon Staley (LAC), Ron Rivera (WAS), Bill Belichick (NE), Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers
The only question with this group is will Staley, Rivera, and Emperor Bill make it to the end of the regular season, or will they join Josh McDaniels and Frank Reich in being dismissed with games left to be played? Belichick I still believe will “mutually agree to part ways” with Robert Kraft in New England, and go enjoy retirement. Staley I’m surprised has lasted this long, especially with Kellen Moore on staff. Moore could be given a trial run as head coach down the stretch, otherwise he may be a top candidate for other opening jobs. Rivera will likely make it through the season, especially with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio being fired following a disastrous Thanksgiving outing against Dallas. But should Washington give Eric Bienemy a trial run as head coach? We’ll see which teams end up joining the Raiders and Panthers in hiring new head coaches for 2024 and beyond.
Other Quick Thoughts
The NFL still has a refereeing epidemic, and at this point I wonder what can be done to rectify it.
It’s no secret that I am critical of Josh Allen. It is time for me to start being more vocal on Justin Herbert. Like Allen, he can put up impressive numbers. Unlike Allen (who can’t win big games), Herbert can hardly win regular season games. The Chargers offense managed only 10 points against the Ravens defense. Now, Baltimore has a top defense, but the Chargers are supposed to be one of the top offenses, no? Herbert’s rookie of the year aura from 2020 has worn off, and it is time to start being real with ourselves when discussing the quarterback hierarchy.
As I type this column up, the news just broke that the Jets designated Aaron Rodgers to return from IR. This is an unreal and unheard of development following an achilles injury for the elder statesman quarterback. I fear that despite a magical return, Rodgers may be done for good if he gets behind that Jets offensive line again.
Game Picks: Week 13 (Season: 110-70 / Last Week: 12-4)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Chargers @ Patriots
Lions @ Saints
Colts @ Titans
Falcons @ Jets
Cardinals @ Steelers
Dolphins @ Commanders
Broncos @ Texans
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Browns @ Rams
49ers @ Eagles
Chiefs @ Packers
Bengals @ Jaguars
Teams on BYE: Ravens, Vikings, Bills, Bears, Raiders, Giants
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: vs. San Francisco 49ers (8-3)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) 48 points / Last Week: 2 / next: @ Green Bay Packers (5-6)
3. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) 47 points / Last Week: 3 / next: BYE
4. San Francisco 49ers (8-3) 43 points / Last Week: 5 / next: @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
T5. Miami Dolphins (8-3) 34 points / Last Week: 7 / next: @ Washington Commanders (4-8)
T5. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) 34 points / Last Week: 6 / next: vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) 26 points / Last Week: 8 / next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)
8. Detroit Lions (8-3) 20 points / Last Week: 4 / next: @ New Orleans Saints (5-6)
9. Houston Texans (6-5) 7 points / Last Week: 10 / next: vs. Denver Broncos (6-5)
10. Cleveland Browns (7-4) 5 points / Last Week: 9 / next: @ Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
Also Receiving Votes: Pittsburgh Steelers 4pts Denver Broncos 2pts
How We Ranked Them
Ryan Balliet: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns
Corey Jason: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans
Dylan Mehl: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans
John Pauline: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans
Josh Tulanowski: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans