The Outsider Sports Football Column - November 22, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Andy Cross / The Denver Post
Accountability. It sure is easy these days to hop on a podcast or login into social media and spout a bunch of nonsensical sports takes. Most of the time, you’ll be wrong. So instead of walking it back, deleting those posts, and changing the narrative, I doubled down on my takes. On the Outsider Sports Football Podcast this week, I talked with Ben Mandell and Corey Jason about where I was wrong in looking ahead to the 2023 NFL season. Go ahead and check out that episode to hear where I was wrong about a couple AFC teams currently in the playoff hunt, as well as the hierarchy of the rookie quarterbacks. In the column this week, I’ll be taking my victory laps - where I was RIGHT!
Where Ryan Was Right
1) Derek Carr is NOT the needle mover people thought he was
Derek Carr was anointed the game’s most underrated quarterback following Matthew Stafford’s success in Los Angeles. I disagreed wholeheartedly. Going back to the 2014 class, I was more of a fan of Teddy Bridgewater. Had it not been for a catastrophic knee injury, I believe Bridgewater would be considered the better of the pair. Instead, the 2014 class should go down as overly underwhelming. Derek Carr is simply “not that guy.” The Raiders didn’t win much with him there, and that team is about where I think they’d be if Carr was still their quarterback - middle of the road, trending down. Interim coach Antonio Pierce put a jolt of energy in this squad, but that will end up wearing off. For the New Orleans Saints, they could have trotted out Jameis Winston and be right where they are at as well - middle of the road, trying to win the worst division in football, all to just get bounced by the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card round. Many were high on the Saints because of Carr’s arrival. I wasn’t, and I’ll take the victory lap on that.
2) Lamar Jackson is a top-3 quarterback, and the Baltimore Ravens will be dangerous
This is one where Baltimore has even exceeded by expectations. I didn’t pick the Ravens to win this division, but I knew they could go on a run from the 5th seed. Instead, the Ravens currently hold the top seed in the AFC and that ever-important bye week in the playoffs. For Lamar, I ranked him as the third best quarterback behind only Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. I was scoffed at ranking him that high, but my faith was rewarded as Lamar Jackson is an MVP front runner. The Ravens are still dealing with the injury bug, but they will play a big part in the AFC playoff picture.
3) DeMeco Ryans is the best head coaching candidate from the 2023 hiring cycle
The ongoing debate: should teams hire an offensive or defensive minded coach to lead their team, and support a young quarterback? Ben and I have very different views on that topic, and I said that former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans would end up being the best rookie head coach. To my dismay as a Colts fan, I was right. Ryans has turned the Texans around in a complete 180 following a tremendous draft spearheaded by C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, and Tank Dell. Shane Steichen in Indy has also exceeded expectations placed by the general consensus media, but not to the extent Ryans has in H-Town. The Texans are firmly in the playoff picture, and could even push Jacksonville for the AFC South crown. Houston, we have a solution.
4) Pretty much the entire landscape of the AFC East
This is really a four-in-one situation. The AFC East is falling almost exactly how I expected. The Miami Dolphins, despite a poor record against elite teams, have taken a step forward from 2022. Another year for Mike McDaniel at the helm, Tua being healthy, and the defensive improvements (including Jalen Ramsey and Vic Fangio) have led to Miami being atop the AFC East. Buffalo has taken the step back I predicted. My vendetta aside, Josh Allen is just too loose with the football, and no weapons have stepped up consistently alongside Stefon Diggs. The Bills can absolutely still snag a wild card spot, but they have one of the toughest schedules remaining. The New York Jets will be lucky to get a wild card spot, which is where I expected them to be. Then again, I also expected Aaron Rodgers to be the quarterback. Either way, they’re storming towards third place in the division. I also planted my flag on how bad New England would be. The book on the New England Patriots Dynasty of the Twenty-First Century is officially closed. I’m just surprised to actually be witnessing it.
5) The Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are good! Knee caps beware!! RRRAAAHHH!!!
Other Quick Thoughts
The Kansas City Chiefs should have made a move for a wide receiver at the trade deadline. Aside from the drops, these receivers are just plain not good. Outside of Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco, does Kansas City truly have any weapons? Patrick Mahomes can elevate those around him, but these pass catchers can figuratively and literally drop the ball at the wrong time.
The Thanksgiving slate is filled with NFC division rivalry games. Green Bay takes on Detroit, Washington travels to Dallas, and the night is capped off by San Francisco going to Seattle. It should be a good slate of games with plenty on the line for playoff seeding.
Despite the primetime loss on Sunday night, I still won’t count out the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC wild card hunt. Josh Dobbs has been carrying a lot on his shoulders already in his short time in Minnesota, and Justin Jefferson should be back soon too.
Game Picks: Week 12 (Season: 98-66 / Last Week: 9-5)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Packers @ Lions
Commanders @ Cowboys
49ers @ Seahawks
Dolphins @ Jets
Saints @ Falcons
Buccaneers @ Colts
Steelers @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Texans
Patriots @ Giants
Panthers @ Titans
Rams @ Cardinals
Browns @ Broncos
Chiefs @ Raiders
Bills @ Eagles
Ravens @ Chargers
Bears @ Vikings
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: vs. Buffalo Bills (6-5)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) 47 points / Last Week: 2 / next: @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-3) 44 points / Last Week: T3 / next: @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
4. Detroit Lions (8-2) 40 points / Last Week: T3 / next: vs. Green Bay Packers (4-6)
5. San Francisco 49ers (7-3) 38 points / Last Week: 5 / next: @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
6. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) 31 points / Last Week: 7 / next: vs. Washington Commanders (4-7)
7. Miami Dolphins (7-3) 28 points / Last Week: 6 / next: @ New York Jets (4-6)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) 18 points / Last Week: 8 / next: @ Houston Texans (6-4)
9. Cleveland Browns (7-3) 12 points / Last Week: 9 / next: @ Denver Broncos (5-5)
10. Houston Texans (6-4) 11 points / Last Week: R/V / next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)
Also Receiving Votes: Seattle Seahawks 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans
Corey Jason: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans
Dylan Mehl: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns
John Pauline: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Tulanowski: Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns