The Outsider Sports Football Column - November 15th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Katie Stratman – USA TODAY Sports
Last week in this column, I took a crack at predicting the NFC playoff seeding as we were sitting at the midpoint of the NFL regular season. While I feel very confidant with those predictions in the NFC, the AFC is a taller task. Through week 10, I see only two teams pretty much out of the playoff hunt: the New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans. Every one of the other fourteen teams in the AFC can reasonably make a playoff push. If you missed those NFC predictions, you can check them out here. Without further ado, let’s get to the AFC…
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs are still the cream of the crop in the AFC, let alone the NFL. What stands out about Kansas City this year is the defense. While the offense struggles at times outside of the Mahomes-Kelce connection, all those recent draft picks spent on defenders is paying off. George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, and Trent McDuffie are just some of the young stars on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. If somebody like Rashee Rice can step up and be a consistent force on offense, then look out.
2. Miami Dolphins - Yes, Miami hasn’t won a “big” game yet this year, but do they have to to secure the second seed? While the rest of the conference beats each other up, the Dolphins might just navigate their way up the seeding. This is still an explosive offense, and a defense that is more than finding their stride. Jalen Ramsey is notching more games under his belt this season, and the rest of the team is getting healthier as well.
3. Baltimore Ravens - I still like the Ravens to come out of the AFC North the rest of the way, but there will be a gap between the 2 and 3 seeds regardless of who represents the North. Kansas City has to deal with a Chargers team that annually underperforms, a Raiders squad with an interim head coach, and a Broncos squad that might be too far behind to catch them. Miami has a Bills team with an identity crisis, the Jets with Zach Wilson still at the helm, and the lowly Patriots (I never thought I’d type that out). Baltimore meanwhile has to deal with Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati - a much tougher assortment of rivals this year.
4. Houston Texans - Let’s get crazy! Trevor Lawrence hasn’t flashed this year, but he has his team sitting pretty good at 6-3 right now. But Houston has already notched a victory over the Jags, and CJ Stroud is running away with Rookie of the Year honors. In 2022, Jacksonville got hot at the right time, won some big games, and stole the division out from under the Tennessee Titans. I think Houston is going play that same script this year.
5. Cleveland Browns - Deshaun Watson returning to Houston on Wild Card Weekend? I hope the NFL’s script writers are reading this, because what a storyline that would be. Cleveland’s defense is elite, and Watson is starting to get his rhythm back. The absence of Nick Chubb is still sorely felt, but Stefanski’s sheme is still getting the job done offensively.
*EDIT* - QB Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury. While PJ Walker is capable of getting some more wins, I am much less confident in this group to get the top Wild Card seed. Realistically, this squad can still secure the sixth or seventh seed, but I can see Cincinnati (listed below) moving into the playoffs, pushing the current sixth and seventh seeds up.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars - The 2023 Jaguars are flat out better than the 2022 Titans, so a playoff appearance is still in the cards despite losing out on the division. Trevor Lawrence will have to lead Jacksonville on the road throughout the playoffs, but this squad is capable of travelling well. Doug Pederson’s pedigree will keep the Jags in contention in the postseason, wherever their games take place.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers - Sideline Matt Canada seems a bit better at his job than booth Matt Canada, evidence by this past week’s game against Green Bay. So long as the offense does enough, Mike Tomlin and this elite defense will take care of the rest. Pittsburgh will find a way into the playoffs yet again.
In the Hunt: Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills
I think we’re all shocked to see how both the Bengals and Bills have fared thus far through the season. They’ve had their struggles, but these are two teams that should find a way to push for a Wild Card spot over Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, or Cleveland.
On the Bubble: Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos
This is where the AFC and NFC differ: the “undercard.” All of these teams could reasonably make the playoffs, but there’s an extra layer of hurdles they need to overcome compared to Cincy and Buffalo. The Chargers dug themselves into a hole early in the season, and Brandon Staley is an active handicap on Justin Herbert and the rest of this team. The Jets still have a quarterback problem from last year, but they also now have an offensive line problem. Similarly for Indianapolis, Gardner Minshew won’t take this team to the level I believe Anthony Richardson would have. Additionally, this Colts secondary is still suspect at best.
The Raiders have found themselves 2-0 following the firing of Josh McDaniels, but can interim coach Antonio Pierce keep the momentum going? Same sentiment for Denver. After getting blown out 70-20, they have big wins over Kansas City and Buffalo. Can the Broncos continue to win the games they’re not supposed too?
Other Quick Thoughts
I don’t believe the Buffalo Bills’ firing of Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey will have the desired effect. Josh Allen is still too loose with the football, and the offensive supporting cast is too inconsistent. Defensively, coaching appears to now be an issue. Twelve men on the field resulted in a Denver do-over for the game winning field goal on Monday Night Football. Add in matchups against Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Miami, and Buffalo may be lucky to snag a wild card spot in 2023.
Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots will need to prepare for a full rebuild. Head over to the Outsider Sports Football Podcast (on Spotify and YouTube) to hear us all give our thoughts on New England’s immediate future.
San Francisco is back on track, send tweet. (send zeet? see, X doesn’t work!)
Game Picks: Week 11 (Season: 89-61 / Last Week: 8-6)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Bengals @ Ravens
Cowboys @ Panthers
Steelers @ Browns
Bears @ Lions
Chargers @ Packers
Cardinals @ Texans
Titans @ Jaguars
Raiders @ Dolphins
Giants @ Commanders
Buccaneers @ 49ers
Jets @ Bills
Seahawks @ Rams
Vikings @ Broncos
Eagles @ Chiefs
Teams on BYE: Falcons, Saints, Colts, Patriots
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) 53 points / Last Week: 2 / next: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
T3. Detroit Lions (7-2) 40 points / Last Week: T4 / next: vs. Chicago Bears (3-7)
T3. Baltimore Ravens (7-3) 40 points / Last Week: 3 / next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
5. San Francisco 49ers (6-3) 36 points / Last Week: 8 / next: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
6. Miami Dolphins (6-3) 30 points / Last Week: 6 / next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (5-5)
7. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) 27 points / Last Week: 9 / next: @ Carolina Panthers (1-8)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) 19 points / Last Week: T4 / next: vs. Tennessee Titans (3-6)
9. Cleveland Browns (6-3) 9 points / Last Week: R/V / next: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) 5 points / Last Week: 7 / next: @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Also Receiving Votes: Houston Texans 4pts Seattle Seahawks 4pts Minnesota Vikings 1pt Pittsburgh Steelers 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans
Corey Jason: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals
Dylan Mehl: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals
John Pauline: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans
Josh Tulanowski: Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns