The Outsider Sports Football Column - November 8th, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to Jenna Watson / IndyStar
Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?! With Week 9 in the books we’re exactly halfway through the NFL Regular season, and well on our way into the playoff hunt. On the Outsider Sports Football Podcast this week, we handed out some midseason awards. So, I’ll do my best in the column this week to predict the playoff seedings nine weeks out. The AFC is as crowded as predicted, but even the NFC has some unexpected wrinkles in it’s playoff picture. Let’s take a look at how I could see the NFC playoff seedings shape up come January 2024. Check back next week for a look at the AFC.
NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles - the Eagles are the best team in the league right now, and there’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll be even better. Injuries have run amok in Philly, especially in the secondary. Tight end Dallas Goedert is now expected to miss a couple weeks following an injury against the Dallas Cowboys. But these Eagles and Jalen Hurts are as good as last year, winning games in all sorts of fashions: blowouts, close defensive battles, shootouts, and slobberknockers. With the 49ers struggles heading into their bye, the Eagles have a hold on being the favorites to come out of the NFC, with the playoffs running through Philly
2. Detroit Lions - history be damned, I am bought in on the Lions in 2023. They currently sit at 6-2, and if the playoffs started right now, they would be the second seed. Of the nine games remaining, Detroit as some marquee matchups against the Chargers, Saints, and Cowboys. They also have five of their divisional games remaining, with both matchups against the disparaging Bears and the steadfast Vikings. The schedule is rounded out with games against the PAckers and Broncos, two teams without a winning record. To put it lightly, the Lions have a very nice schedule down the stretch, and are playing very well.
3. San Francisco 49ers - San Fran struggled heading into the bye, but they had that week off the reset, get healthy, and do some self scouting. Their next task? Facing one of the hottest teams in the NFL, also coming off a bye week: the JAcksonville Jaguars. Adding edge rusher Chase Young at the trade deadline will help, but getting players like Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams will be paramount. Now that Brock Purdy was formally welcomed to the NFL, let’s see what he can do. Despite the three game losing skid, my faith isn’t misplaced in the 49ers to find their way to a great record, and at least into the Divisional Round.
4. New Orleans Saints - it looks like the Saints will win the NFC South, and grab ahold of the fourth seed. Their prize for that accomplishment? A likely playoff matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. It should be a retread of 2022: Dallas visits the fourth seeded, NFC South champions and likely pulls out a road victory. But for New Orleans, they figure to just be the last team standing. Carolina has massively underperformed, even for a team with a rookie quarterback and a less than stellar offensive supporting cast. Tampa Bay two weeks in a row has failed to close out a game. Atlanta refuses to utilize their best players. I guess that leaves the Saints, who have a poor head coach, a quarterback who I don’t believe can lead a team on a playoff run, and an up-and-down defense. Not a great recipe for playoff football.
5. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas for the second year in a row should ignite a playoff overhaul debate. Should division winners be guaranteed a playoff spot, but not a top 4 seed? I think that would be the change to make. The four division winners and the next three best teams make the playoffs, then seeding one through seven are determined based on record and other tie breakers from there. Dallas should run away with the top wild card spot, and be the favorites again to win a road playoff game in the opening round.
6. Minnesota Vikings - this is where the NFC playoffs start to get interesting. Minnesota was an afterthought coming into the year, and those theories were almost proven true a few weeks into the season. Then the Vikings started to figure it out, reel off some wins, and then have their momentum come to a standstill with a Kirk Cousins injury. They held onto that game for a win, but where would they go from there? A move at the trade deadline to acquire Josh Dobbs from Arizona was the move. A heroic effort got them another win over Atlanta, with Dobbs only in the building for a few days. Justin Jefferson will be back in time for a wild card push, and I think they push past Seattle.
7. Seattle Seahawks - The Geno Smith magic may be wearing off, but this is still a very good roster with Pete Carroll at head coach. Nobody thought they could do it last year, and the narrative is starting to slip again following some disappointing losses in recent weeks. I still believe that Seattle can get back into the NFC playoffs, and the seventh seed may be right where they want to be in my predictions. This position would garner them a rematch with the Detroit Lions, a team that Seattle has a very good track record against the last two years.
On the Bubble: Washington Commanders, Atlanta Falcons
Washington is about the only team I could see pushing for a Wild Card spot, but it’s an uphill climb. Sam Howell has shown he can be a productive quarterback in the NFL. Ron Rivera’s coaching and Washington’s porous offensive line has prevented them from winning a few more games this year already. A coaching change to pair with the new ownership in Washington could launch Washington to be the surprise team in 2024.
Atlanta’s best hope to make the playoffs is to leapfrog the New Orleans Saints for the NFC South crown. The biggest problem for Atlanta? Their own head coach, Arthur Smith. If the Falcons can stay out of their own way, and USE BIJAN ROBINSON, then maybe they can get hot at the right time and catch the Saints sleeping. Perhaps an in-season adjustment could help Atlanta, much like moving on from Matt Rhule helped Carolina get better last year.
Other Quick Thoughts
Can the NFL take advantage of the flexing of games? Why have it if you are not going to utilize it? This week’s primtime slate: Panthers vs Bears, Raiders vs Jets, and Broncos vs Bills. Yikes.
Martavis Bryant and Carson Wentz are back in the NFL, signing with the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. We’ll see if either can jumpstart their careers again.
The New England Patriots are not firing Bill Belichick during the season, let’s put that narrative to rest. They’ll “mutually agree to part ways” come January, or the Hoodie will get hung up for good with an official retirement.
Game Picks: Week 10 (Season: 81-55 / Last Week: 8-6)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Panthers @ Bears
Colts @ Patriots (in Frankfurt, Germany)
Browns @ Ravens
Texans @ Bengals
49ers @ Jaguars
Saints @ Vikings
Packers @ Steelers
Titans @ Buccaneers
Falcons @ Cardinals
Lions @ Chargers
Giants @ Cowboys
Commanders @ Seahawks
Jets @ Raiders
Broncos @ Bills
Teams on BYE: Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: BYE
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) 51 points / Last Week: 4 / next: BYE
3. Baltimore Ravens (7-2) 49 points / Last Week: T2 / next: vs. Cleveland Browns (5-3)
T4. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) 35 points / Last Week: 5 / next: vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-3)
T4. Detroit Lions (6-2) 35 points / Last Week: 6 / next: @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)
6. Miami Dolphins (6-3) 25 points / Last Week: T2 / next: BYE
7. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) 24 points / Last Week: 9 / next: vs. Houston Texans (4-4)
8. San Francisco 49ers (5-3) 22 points / Last Week: 7 / next: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
9. Dallas Cowboys (5-3) 20 points / Last Week: 8 / next: vs. New York Giants (2-7)
10. Seattle Seahawks (5-3) 4 points / Last Week: 10 / next: vs. Washington Commanders (4-5)
Receiving Votes: Pittsburgh Steelers 3 pts Cleveland Browns 2pts
Ryan Balliet: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins
Corey Jason: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns
Dylan Mehl: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns
John Pauline: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Tulanowski: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals