The Outsider Sports Football Column - November 1st, 2023
Weekly look around of the NFL landscape, including top storylines, game picks, and the Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings.
Photo credit to (AP Photo / Josie Lepe) (Josie Lepe / Associated Press)
Does the top class of the NFL feel more even this year to anyone else? All of the top teams in the AFC are currently sitting at 6-2, with other expected powerhouses Buffalo and Cincinnati not far behind. Over in the NFC, Philadelphia is starting to separate themselves at 7-1. Dallas, Detroit, and San Francisco still have the time and the rosters to make a push, but the top seed feels like Philly’s to lose. So should we be panicking about any of these teams? Let’s dive in!
No Need to Worry
San Francisco 49ers: Notice anything about the images attached to the column these past three weeks? They all come at the expense of San Fran, highlighting Cleveland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. A three game losing streak is never good, but I’m not worried about Kyle Shanahan’s group as they head into their bye. All-stars Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel will return to the lineup from injury soon, and former second overall pick Chase Young will fit right into this defensive front to aid the pass rush. Brock Purdy will get some time to heal up and do some self reflecting, as he hasn’t played up to his own standard. Purdy became known for playing mistake free football, but his play of late has been littered with errors in judgement. Corey listed the Niners as his hot seat team on the podcast last week, and a loss to Cincy didn’t help in my eyes. However, a bye week does wonders, and great teams can course correct. Make no mistake about it - San Francisco is still a great team.
Worry Just a Little Bit
Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is a Good team. Not great, but good with a capital G. While the other big players in the NFC improved as the NFL trade deadline approached, Dallas stayed put with their roster as it is. The problem? Dallas was already outmatched with this roster by San Francisco. A matchup with the Eagles in Philadelphia will give us a good perspective on where this Cowboys team can end up, but I was more than surprised to see Dallas avoid adding any help, whether via trade or even free agency. Dallas will still be a player in the NFC playoff picture, but the distance between them and the top teams in the conference feels a little bit greater.
Kansas City Chiefs: This concern isn’t new: it’s the receiving options outside of Travis Kelce. Kelce is having another amazing season, but he cannot be a one man army the rest of the way. No moves were made at the deadline by KC, either, so it falls to someone in the building to step up. Right now, Rashee Rice seems like the guy. If he can grab onto that role and make a statement as Mahomes’ WR1, then this blurb can get thrown out, and the Chiefs can enjoy another appearance in the Super Bowl. The blueprint is out there to beat Kansas City: make anyone besides Kelce beat our defense.
Worry Quite a Bit
Buffalo Bills: Yes, I have my opinions on Buffalo well documented, but the 2023 Bills seems very off compared to the Bills of the previous few seasons. The injuries on the defensive side have plenty to do with that. But the offensive inconsistencies, which is what kept this team from reaching the heights of Kansas City and Cincinnati, are still present. What does separate Buffalo from teams like Kansas City and Dallas above is their willingness to try to improve. The Bills signed RB Leonard Fournette and made a deal for CB Rasul Douglas from Green Bay. I applaud them for making some moves, but neither of these guys are huge needle movers for me. Buffalo is still behind the other AFC powerhouses in my eyes, and they may have hit their ceiling with their current coaching staff and player personnel.
Other Quick Thoughts
Well, I can no longer say that Josh McDaniels is the worst head coach in the league anymore, because the Las Vegas Raiders fired him late Halloween night. Antonio Pierce will act as the interim, and the first domino is the head coaching carousel has already fallen as we turn the calendar to November.
Can Josh Dobbs keep the Minnesota Vikings afloat? I think so, as Dobbs has a decent track record of filling in as a quarterback. He had some starts in Pittsburgh and Tennessee before being the lone bright spot so far this season for the Cardinals. Dobbs will have the best supporting cast he’s had as a starter. Justin Jefferson will return this season, and the Vikings should return to the playoffs this year.
What are the Chicago Bears doing? They decided to become buyers at the trade deadline, despite gearing up for another rebuild when the current one isn’t going so well. Nevertheless, they added Montez Sweat in a deal with Washington that will likely send them a very early second round pick. My gut reaction is that this feels like Chase Claypool 2.0. We know Chicago will likely have a new head coach in 2024, but will they have a new general manager as well?
Game Picks: Week 9 (Season: 73-49 / Last Week: 11-5)
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll be picking every game, every week. The team I’m choosing to win will be in bold down below, and I’ll keep a running record of how I do above.
Titans @ Steelers
Dolphins @ Chiefs ( in Frankfurt, Germany)
Vikings @ Falcons
Seahawks @ Ravens
Cardinals @ Browns
Rams @ Packers
Buccaneers @ Texans
Commanders @ Patriots
Bears @ Saints
Giants @ Raiders
Colts @ Panthers
Cowboys @ Eagles
Bills @ Bengals
Chargers @ Jets
Teams on BYE: Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos
The Outsider Sports NFL Power Rankings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (7-1) 60 points / Last Week: 1 / next: vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
T2. Baltimore Ravens (6-2) 46 points / Last Week: 4 / next: vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
T2. Miami Dolphins (6-2) 46 points / Last Week: 5 / next: @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) (in Frankfurt, Germany)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) 43 points / Last Week: 2 / next: vs. Miami Dolphins (6-2) (in Frankfurt, Germany)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) 37 points / Last Week: 7 / next: BYE
6. Detroit Lions (6-2) 29 points / Last Week: 6 / next: BYE
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-3) 20 points / Last Week: 3 / next: BYE
8. Dallas Cowboys (5-2) 18 points / Last Week: 8 / next: @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) 12 points / Last Week: R/V / next: vs. Buffalo Bills (5-3)
10. Seattle Seahawks (5-2) 9 points / Last Week: R/V / next: @ Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Also Receiving Votes: Cleveland Browns 5pts Buffalo Bills 4pts New York Jets 1pt
How We Ranked Them:
Ryan Balliet: Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys
Ben Mandell: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers
Corey Jason: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New York Jets
Dylan Mehl: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills
John Pauline: Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills
Josh Tulanowski: Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks